Has the Phoenix housing market finally balanced out? 2014 could provide the answer

Source:  Phoenix Business Journal
Article by Kristena Hansen
2/14/14

When it comes to home prices, supply and demand, the pendulum has been swinging from one extreme to the other in Phoenix since the housing boom of a decade ago.  The metro Phoenix housing market went from a pre-recession sellers’ market to a buyers’ market amid the foreclosure crisis. Then it went back in the sellers’ favor again these past two years when inventory levels and interest rates were at all-time lows.
 
The metro Phoenix housing market went from a pre-recession sellers’ market to a buyers’ market amid the foreclosure crisis. Then it went back in the sellers’ favor again these past two years when inventory levels and interest rates were at all-time lows.

 During these shifts, the Valley saw prices peak, plunge to record lows and then, finally, pick up the pace again at a staggering rate in recent years.  

But now in 2014, the pendulum could swing yet again. 

Despite the fact that there were 36 percent more homes on the market Valleywide in December than a year earlier — thanks to double-digit boosts in home prices all last year that pulled many homeowners out of negative equity — demand has continued to fizzle since July. That’s according to the latest Arizona State University housing report released today.

In fact, single-family home sales were down 17 percent year-over-year, the report said. Even with a 12 percent increase in listings priced below $150,000 — where the supply shortage had been most severe and demand highest — sales in that range plunged by a whopping 47 percent.

For buyers, this has meant more to choose from and less competition. But for sellers, it means fewer showings, longer wait times for offers to show up — and cutting prices.

The median Phoenix-area single-family home price in December stood at $205,000 — up a sharp 25 percent year-over-year, but only a 2.5 percent increase from November.

“We have been through enormous turbulence since 2002 and it will be a relief for many to be operating in a more balanced market,” Michael Orr, the report’s author and housing expert at ASU’s W.P. Carey School of Business, said in the report. “However, if the current cooling trend that started in July continues for much longer, 2014 could easily see average and median home prices move a little lower than they were at the end of 2013.”

...Orr noted that the Phoenix luxury market — homes priced above $500,000 — is the only sector that hasn’t seen this slowdown. Luxury sales in December were up 21 percent year-over-year as access to jumbo loans is much more accessible than lower-end financing, and will stay that way should the stock market continue performing well.

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