Monday, April 13, 2020

Welcome to Pook's E-News!

Pook Bellini 
REALTOR®, ABR, CNE, e-PRO, SFR
Arizona Best Real Estate
                       Attention to Detail
           Dedication to Exceptional Service
azpook@gmail.com
Mobile: 480-628-7377
Pook's E-News contains up-to-date articles and information about real estate and other topics of interest. It is sent out as an email to those on my mailing list and then posted to this site.  If you would like to receive Pook's E-News and are not currently on my email list, please contact me. Also, please know that your feedback is both welcome and deeply appreciated!  Feel free to leave comments or email me directly.

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Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Cromford Report: Market Summary for the Beginning of December

Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™/
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


There are those who will look at the sales count for November and assume the month was dreadful. Sales were down more than 20% compared with October. However we think this was a pretty good performance. November contained only 17 full working days because of Veterans Day and Thanksgiving plus weekends at both the start and the end of the month. This is the lowest number of days we ever get in a calendar month. In contrast October had 23 working days, the highest we ever see. With 26% fewer days in which to close them, 20% fewer sales is not bad at all. It is disappointing that November 2014 was down 2.4% compared with November last year, but November last year had 18 working days, which is a 6% advantage over 17, so again November looks more reasonable in that context.

There are a few other good news straws to grasp.

  • active listing counts have started to fall (though not in all areas). We are down 1% from a month ago and only 2.3% higher than in 2013.
  • pending listings are UP from last month, as are listings under contract.
These are the first small signs of an improvement in demand that we have seen for a long time, although it would be foolish to claim either is strong signal. At the moment we are willing to take what we can get.

The annual sales count has stabilized and if the number of listings under contract is an indicator, December should be quite a reasonable month for closings.
It is not time to celebrate but it is time to start feeling a little hopeful that the worst is behind us.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for December 1, 2014 relative to December 1, 2013 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 24,593 versus 24,043 last year - up 2.3% - but down 1.0% from 24,846 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB): 27,427 versus 26,817 last year - up 2.3% - but down 0.5% compared with 27,561 last month
  • Pending Listings: 5,497 versus 5,965 last year - down 7.8% - but up 3.9% from 5,293 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 8,331 versus 8,739 last year - down 4.7% - but up 4.0% from 8,008 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 4,992 versus 5,117 last year - down 2.4% - and down 20.4% from 6,269 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $129.07 versus $123.48 last year - up 4.5% - and up 1.2% from $127.59 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $192,000 versus $185,000 last year - up 3.8% - but down 0.3% from $192,500 last month
Pricing has benefited from easy comparisons because November was weaker than expected last year. The opposite will be true when we do the market summary at the start of 2015.

Compared with a month ago, supply has been growing most in the luxury sectors and in the areas focused on active adults and the retired. Examples include Gold Canyon, Arizona City, Sun City, Sun City West, Sun Lakes and Paradise Valley. Many of the low and mid-range areas have experienced a significant drop in supply, especially Gilbert, Glendale, Avondale, Tolleson, Laveen, Chandler and Phoenix. 

Despite the slight improvement in a few indicators, we would still describe the market as subdued, awaiting an economic recovery that improves the earnings potential of those who depend primarily on a job rather than capital gains.

The for-sale housing market is unlikely to drive the economy forward at this stage; it is more likely to be the other way round.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Cromford Report: November Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™/
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending November 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $129.52 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 3.1% above the $125.69 we now measure for October 15 and represents quite a significant surge in average pricing. Our forecast range was $127.00 to $132.18 with a mid-point of $129.59. Last month's mid-point therefore proved to be some 0.09% (7c) above the actual average recorded so far. This is well within our margin of error, in fact one of our most accurate forecasts ever. Given that the market is fairly weak, forecasting a 3.1% increase felt very much like sticking our necks out, but the model proved to be absolutely correct.
On November 15, REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $89.67 per sq. ft. (up 1.4%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $95.04 (down 0.9%) while normal sales averaged $133.20 (up 3.6%). The market share of normal sales edged up from 89.3% to 89.9% over the last 31 days. REOs lost market share from 6.7% to 6.0%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures gained very slightly from 4.0% to 4.1%. 

On November 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $130.92, 0.1% below the reading for October 15. Among those pending listings we have 81.7% normal, 7.3% in REOs and 11.0% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings within Greater Phoenix on October 15 in each category was: $138.63 for normal, $94.53 for short sales & pre-foreclosures and $85.30 for REOs. The figure for REO sales is much lower than last month, while that for short sales & pre-foreclosures is much higher while that for normal sales is slightly lower. 

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on December 15 is $130.17, which is 0.5% higher than the November 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $127.57 to $132.77. Our forecast this month is for a fairly small increase in sales pricing over the next month. Once again this goes against the prevailing trend but is based on the continuing strength in the pending $/SF over the last two months. 

There are several factors helping the average $/SF for closed sales to stay high

  1. A continuing fall in the share of homes sold among the lower price ranges.
  2. Continuing sales strength for very high end luxury homes.
  3. More sellers agreeing to pay buyers' closing costs and other concessions, a significant invisible discount that does not show up in the recorded sales price.
With demand remaining weak, we still expect the natural price range to remain stuck between $123 and $133 per sq. ft. over the next few months.

We would need to see a strong recovery in demand to change this expectation.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Veterans Day 2014


Veterans Day is celebrated on November 11th, the anniversary of the signing of the Armistice that ended World War I.  The main hostilities of WWI were properly finished at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, with Germany signing the Armistice.

Heartfelt thanks go out to the men and women who have served in our armed forces, protecting our nation, and preserving the freedoms we cherish. 

Monday, November 10, 2014

Happy 239th Birthday to the United State Marine Corps

With love and thanks to my husband and his beloved Marine Corps brothers for their dedication and service, and with heartfelt thanks to all who have served or are currently serving.   
   
Semper Fi!

As in years past, it is my honor to share the annual birthday tribute to the United States Marine Corps presented by Bob Parsons, Executive Chairman and Founder of Go Daddy.  Please click HERE to view this 239th birthday presentation.   

In addition to the annual birthday tribute, GoDaddy is partnering with the Semper Fi Fund and  America's Fund to raise money to help critically ill and injured members of all of the United States Armed Forces and their families.  The Bob and Renee Parsons Foundation and GoDaddy.com will match up to $5 million in donations.
The Injured Marine Semper Fi Fund and the America's Fund provide financial support for injured and critically ill members of the U.S. Armed Forces and their families during times of hospitalization and recovery, as well as assistance for those with ongoing medical needs.  

You have the power to make a difference.  Click HERE to help GoDaddy help those heroes who've given so much for our freedom. 
-----
 IN LOVING MEMORY OF BOB "HEAVY" PETRELLA
Every November 10th, my husband and his Marine Corps buddies call to wish each other a happy birthday.  This year, there will be one phone call less... today and always we remember with deep love and affection our dear friend, Bob "Heavy" Petrella, who was  a USMC Captain during the Vietnam War and was a recipient of 2 Purple Hearts and a Bronze Star for valor.

Thanks for the all the great memories, Heavy!  We love you, man!
--------

I invite you to check out this website for a painting titled 
VIETNAM ELEGY 
 created by our dear friend, renowned artist, Denham Clements.




Sunday, November 2, 2014

Cromford Report - October Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™/
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $125.69 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.7% below the $126.63 we now measure for September 15. Our forecast range was $123.11 to $128.13 with a mid-point of $125.62. Last month's forecast therefore proved to be among the most accurate we have ever experienced, being only 7c higher than the mid point.

On October 15, REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $88.44 per sq. ft. (down 0.6%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $94.10 (down 6.6%) while normal sales averaged $128.62 (down 0.7%). The market share of normal sales was unchanged over the last 30 days at 89.5% of sales. REOs gained market share from 6.3% to 6.5%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures lost market share from 4.2% to 4.0%. 

On October 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $131.10, 3.1% above the reading for September 15. Among those pending listings we have 81.0% normal, 7.6% in REOs and 11.4% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings within Greater Phoenix on September 15 in each category was: $139.00 for normal, $91.35 for short sales & pre-foreclosures and $90.74 for REOs. All of these are higher than last month, especially the figure for normal sales. 

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $129.59, which is 3.1% higher than the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $127.00 to $132.18. Our forecast this month is for a fairly large increase in sales pricing over the next month. This goes against the prevailing trend but is based on the strong move upward in the pending $/SF over the last month. Month to month forecasting has been hazardous this year with considerable volatility from one month to the next. This optimistic forecast is due primarily to a favorable change in the mix of properties in escrow, rather than an underlying strength in pricing. The underlying longer term price trend is still slightly negative.
With demand remaining weak, we still expect the natural price range to remain stuck between $123 and $133 in the next few months.

In the current conditions we believe the strongest pricing of the year has already occurred between March and June. Pricing is likely to show at least some degree of weakness during the last 3 months of the year due to the usual seasonal increase in supply and lower sales volumes. We would need to see a sudden strong recovery in demand to change this expectation.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Questions to Ask Before Buying a Home

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted:  October 27, 2014


"If you are thinking about purchasing a home right now, you are surely getting a lot of advice. Though your friends and family have your best interests at heart, they may not be fully aware of your needs and what is currently happening in real estate. Let’s look at whether or not now is actually a good time for you to buy a home."

There are three questions you should ask before purchasing in today’s market:

1. Why am I buying a home in the first place?

This truly is the most important question to answer. Forget the finances for a minute. Why did you even begin to consider purchasing a home? For most, the reason has nothing to do with finances. A study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University reveals that the four major reasons people buy a home have nothing to do with money:
  • A good place to raise children and for them to get a good education
  • A place where you and your family feel safe
  • More space for you and your family
  • Control of the space
What non-financial benefits will you and your family derive from owning a home? The answer to that question should be the biggest reason you decide to purchase or not.

2. Where are home values headed?

When looking at future housing values, Home Price Expectation Survey provides a fair assessment. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.
Here is what the experts projected in the latest survey:
  • Home values will appreciate by 4% in 2015.
  • The cumulative appreciation will be 19.5% by 2018.
  • Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of over 11.2% by 2018.

3. Where are mortgage interest rates headed?

A buyer must be concerned about more than just prices. The ‘long term cost’ of a home can be dramatically impacted by an increase in mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of RealtorsFannie Mae and Freddie Mac have all projected that mortgage interest rates will increase by approximately one full percentage over the next twelve months.

Bottom Line

Only you and your family can know for certain the right time to purchase a home. Answering these questions will help you make that decision.