Monday, April 13, 2020

Welcome to Pook's E-News!

Pook Bellini 
REALTOR®, ABR, CNE, e-PRO, SFR
Arizona Best Real Estate
                       Attention to Detail
           Dedication to Exceptional Service
azpook@gmail.com
Mobile: 480-628-7377
Pook's E-News contains up-to-date articles and information about real estate and other topics of interest. It is sent out as an email to those on my mailing list and then posted to this site.  If you would like to receive Pook's E-News and are not currently on my email list, please contact me. Also, please know that your feedback is both welcome and deeply appreciated!  Feel free to leave comments or email me directly.

Please note that you can search for previous postings at the ARCHIVE at the bottom of the left sidebar.  

You can also scroll down below to see previous postings, however, since there is a limit to how many postings appear on a page, you will need to click on "older posts" (lower right corner of each page) to see older posts.  There are lots of posts hiding there... don't miss them! 

Friday, July 18, 2014

Cromford Report: Michael Orr on the Current Market

Source:  Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report
Director Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice
WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


July 17
The single family home market continues to climb very slowly out of its buyer's market towards neutral territory. When we look at the 29 major and secondary cities we see the following Cromford® Market Index values:

There is clearly a big spread, with the active-adult markets focused on baby boomers (Sun Lakes, Sun City West, Sun City) doing much better than the average city. However we also see recent strong improvements in the luxury markets of Paradise Valley, Gold Canyon, Fountain Hills and Scottsdale. Northwest Pinal County (Maricopa & Casa Grande) is also showing a good improving trend.
Overall there are only 8 cities showing deterioration from a seller's perspective, 1 unchanged and 20 showing improvement.
The cities with a strong improving trend over the past week are:
  1. Paradise Valley
  2. Gold Canyon
  3. Fountain Hills
  4. Tolleson
  5. Glendale
  6. Apache Junction
  7. Sun Lakes
  8. Scottsdale
  9. Sun City West
  10. Casa Grande
  11. Maricopa
  12. Surprise
  13. Sun City
  14. El Mirage
  15. Anthem

There are only 2 cities with a strong deteriorating trend over the last week:
  1. Arizona City
  2. Queen Creek
This doesn't represent a hot market as demand is still dismal, but the supply is adjusting to the low demand and in most places, so are prices. Where prices are weakening slightly, demand is showing some signs of improving. This is how the market is supposed to work.

The Cost of Waiting a Year

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/the KCM Blog
Posted: 18 Jul 2014 04:00 AM PDT
Cost of Waiting a Year | Keeping Current Matters
Freddie Mac: http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf
Home Price Expectation Survey: https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2014_HPE_Survey.php

Friday, July 4, 2014

Happy 4th of July!

Wishing you a Safe and Happy

With thanks to Laura Wrigley of First American Title for the following message:

What It Means to Be an American

To believe in the promise
of a better tomorrow,
and stand united in our efforts
to give a peaceful nation
to our children...

To honor each other's differences
and cherish the richness of our history,
even as it continues to unfold
from sea to shining sea...

To love deeply
our friends and family, day by day,
and never take for granted
the privilege of calling ourselves American.



There are few things that I can recall with clarity from my high school days, but one thing that has always remained with me are the powerful words of Declaration of Independence.  Today I still remember those eloquent first words that declared separation from a tyrannical government and I am reminded of the brilliance of the men who envisioned a country where all men are created equal, where Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness are given rights, and where endless opportunity is available to all.  On this Fourth of July 2014, I invite you to join me in reflecting on the words that our Founding Fathers declared 238 years ago...

IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

People in New England began fighting the British for their independence in 1775.  On July 2, 1776, the Congress secretly voted for independence from Great Britain. The Declaration of Independence was first published two days later on July 4, 1776. The first public reading of the Declaration of Independence was on July 8, 1776.  Delegates began to sign the Declaration of Independence on August 2, 1776.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

FOREIGN BUYERS & SELLERS INFORMATION

It is extremely important that any buyer or seller who is not a U.S. citizen seek competent professional advice before entering into a real estate transaction.

Below are several excellent resources:

First American Title Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act  (FIRPTA) Resource Info:  



Keats, Connelly and Associates is the largest cross-border wealth management firm in North America that specializes in assisting Canadians and Americans realize their dreams of a cross-border lifestyle.

Written by Mr. Robert Keats, founder of Keats, Connelly and Associates, The Border Guide has sold over 70,000 copies and is considered the definitive cross-border financial tool for Canadians living, working and investing in the United States. The book is available at the Keats, Connelly and Associates website.

This is not an endorsement of this company. It is provided here as one possible resource for those seeking professional advice.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Update on Millennials and Student Debt

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

As a follow-up to my posting last week about Millennials, here's today's latest update from Keeping Current Matters...

Millennials and Student Debt: We Knew They Were Wrong!
Posted: 30 Jun 2014 04:00 AM PDT

For almost a year now, we have been trying to debunk the myth that student debt is keeping the vast majority of Millennials from purchasing a home.

We explained that Millennials have purchased more homes over a recent twelve month period than any other generation as was reported by the National Association of Realtors).

We explained that the homeownership rate of people currently between the ages of 25-29 is 34.3%. That is higher than the 33.6% rate members of the previous generation (people currently between the ages of 45-49) achieved when they were that age (as per John Burns Consulting).

We explained that a recent survey showed that almost three out of every four (74%) young adults between the ages of 18-34 plan to buy a home in the next five years with 32% planning to do it in the next twelve months.

However, no matter how hard we tried, the same recourse was trumpeted back at us – What about student debt?

The good news is that the real facts about student debt are coming to light. Last week, The New York Times posted an article titled The Reality of Student Debt Is Different from the Clich├ęs. This article went into great depth regarding the findings of a new study just released by the Brookings Institution, Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon? which looked at data through 2010. The NYT article quoted key elements of the report:
  • 58% of young-adult households have less than $10,000 in debt. An additional 18% have between $10,000 and $20,000
  • 36% of households with people between the ages of 20 and 40 had education debt, up from 14% in 1989. Some of the increase stems from the good news that more people are going to college.
  • Taking financial aid into account, the average tuition at private (nonprofit) colleges has not increased any faster than overall inflation over the last decade.
  • Because the incomes of college graduates have grown since the early 1990s, the share of income that a typical student debtor has to devote to loan payments is only marginally higher than it was in the early 1990s — and somewhat lower than it was in late 1990s. It was 3.5% in 1992, 4.3% in 1998 and 4% in 2010.
  • The burden for the people with the most debt is significantly lower today than two decades ago. Someone at the 90th percentile of debt had to devote 15% of their income to repayment in 2010, down from 20% in 1992.
Bottom Line
The authors of the actual study put it simply in their conclusion:

“Despite the widely held belief that circumstances for borrowers with student loan debt are growing worse over time, our findings reveal no evidence in support of this narrative. In fact, the average growth in lifetime income among households with student loan debt easily exceeds the average growth in debt, suggesting that, all else equal, households with debt today are in a better financial position than households with debt were two decades ago. Furthermore, the incidence of burdensome monthly payments does not appear to have become more widespread over the last two decades.”

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Pook's Message - 6/24/14

I find today's Keeping Current Matters article about Millennials (born 1980-1995) in the real estate market to be quite interesting.  The article refers to a recent report put out by the National Association of REALTORS® that indicates that Millennials make up 31% of Buyers and 12% of Sellers nationally.  While many Millennials are actually not diving into the real estate market today due to huge student loan and credit card debt, and lack of savings, there does appear to be a significant number who are, at least, dipping their toes in.  According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, "the Millennial generation, which is under the age of 34, is now entering the peak period in which people typically buy a first home. 'Given that Millennials are the largest generation in history after the baby boomers, it means there is a potential for strong underlying demand. Moreover, their aspiration and the long-term investment aspect to owning a home remain solid among young people,' he said.  “However, the challenges of tight credit, limited inventory, eroding affordability and high debt loads have limited the capacity of young people to own."  In an April 29th Wall Street Journal article, Conor Dougherty noted that "the U.S. homeownership rate hit its lowest level since the mid-1990s, according to a Census release that showed that despite two years of recovery in the housing market there are still fewer homeowners than there were before the recession.  But the data also suggest that "more young people are moving out of their parents' home and into rentals--a positive first step toward an eventual recovery in the share of households that own their home."