Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Cromford Report: Market Summary for the Beginning of December

Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™/
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


There are those who will look at the sales count for November and assume the month was dreadful. Sales were down more than 20% compared with October. However we think this was a pretty good performance. November contained only 17 full working days because of Veterans Day and Thanksgiving plus weekends at both the start and the end of the month. This is the lowest number of days we ever get in a calendar month. In contrast October had 23 working days, the highest we ever see. With 26% fewer days in which to close them, 20% fewer sales is not bad at all. It is disappointing that November 2014 was down 2.4% compared with November last year, but November last year had 18 working days, which is a 6% advantage over 17, so again November looks more reasonable in that context.

There are a few other good news straws to grasp.

  • active listing counts have started to fall (though not in all areas). We are down 1% from a month ago and only 2.3% higher than in 2013.
  • pending listings are UP from last month, as are listings under contract.
These are the first small signs of an improvement in demand that we have seen for a long time, although it would be foolish to claim either is strong signal. At the moment we are willing to take what we can get.

The annual sales count has stabilized and if the number of listings under contract is an indicator, December should be quite a reasonable month for closings.
It is not time to celebrate but it is time to start feeling a little hopeful that the worst is behind us.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for December 1, 2014 relative to December 1, 2013 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 24,593 versus 24,043 last year - up 2.3% - but down 1.0% from 24,846 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB): 27,427 versus 26,817 last year - up 2.3% - but down 0.5% compared with 27,561 last month
  • Pending Listings: 5,497 versus 5,965 last year - down 7.8% - but up 3.9% from 5,293 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 8,331 versus 8,739 last year - down 4.7% - but up 4.0% from 8,008 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 4,992 versus 5,117 last year - down 2.4% - and down 20.4% from 6,269 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $129.07 versus $123.48 last year - up 4.5% - and up 1.2% from $127.59 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $192,000 versus $185,000 last year - up 3.8% - but down 0.3% from $192,500 last month
Pricing has benefited from easy comparisons because November was weaker than expected last year. The opposite will be true when we do the market summary at the start of 2015.

Compared with a month ago, supply has been growing most in the luxury sectors and in the areas focused on active adults and the retired. Examples include Gold Canyon, Arizona City, Sun City, Sun City West, Sun Lakes and Paradise Valley. Many of the low and mid-range areas have experienced a significant drop in supply, especially Gilbert, Glendale, Avondale, Tolleson, Laveen, Chandler and Phoenix. 

Despite the slight improvement in a few indicators, we would still describe the market as subdued, awaiting an economic recovery that improves the earnings potential of those who depend primarily on a job rather than capital gains.

The for-sale housing market is unlikely to drive the economy forward at this stage; it is more likely to be the other way round.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Cromford Report: November Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™/
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending November 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $129.52 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 3.1% above the $125.69 we now measure for October 15 and represents quite a significant surge in average pricing. Our forecast range was $127.00 to $132.18 with a mid-point of $129.59. Last month's mid-point therefore proved to be some 0.09% (7c) above the actual average recorded so far. This is well within our margin of error, in fact one of our most accurate forecasts ever. Given that the market is fairly weak, forecasting a 3.1% increase felt very much like sticking our necks out, but the model proved to be absolutely correct.
On November 15, REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $89.67 per sq. ft. (up 1.4%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $95.04 (down 0.9%) while normal sales averaged $133.20 (up 3.6%). The market share of normal sales edged up from 89.3% to 89.9% over the last 31 days. REOs lost market share from 6.7% to 6.0%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures gained very slightly from 4.0% to 4.1%. 

On November 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $130.92, 0.1% below the reading for October 15. Among those pending listings we have 81.7% normal, 7.3% in REOs and 11.0% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings within Greater Phoenix on October 15 in each category was: $138.63 for normal, $94.53 for short sales & pre-foreclosures and $85.30 for REOs. The figure for REO sales is much lower than last month, while that for short sales & pre-foreclosures is much higher while that for normal sales is slightly lower. 

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on December 15 is $130.17, which is 0.5% higher than the November 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $127.57 to $132.77. Our forecast this month is for a fairly small increase in sales pricing over the next month. Once again this goes against the prevailing trend but is based on the continuing strength in the pending $/SF over the last two months. 

There are several factors helping the average $/SF for closed sales to stay high

  1. A continuing fall in the share of homes sold among the lower price ranges.
  2. Continuing sales strength for very high end luxury homes.
  3. More sellers agreeing to pay buyers' closing costs and other concessions, a significant invisible discount that does not show up in the recorded sales price.
With demand remaining weak, we still expect the natural price range to remain stuck between $123 and $133 per sq. ft. over the next few months.

We would need to see a strong recovery in demand to change this expectation.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Veterans Day 2014


Veterans Day is celebrated on November 11th, the anniversary of the signing of the Armistice that ended World War I.  The main hostilities of WWI were properly finished at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, with Germany signing the Armistice.

Heartfelt thanks go out to the men and women who have served in our armed forces, protecting our nation, and preserving the freedoms we cherish. 

Monday, November 10, 2014

Happy 239th Birthday to the United State Marine Corps

With love and thanks to my husband and his beloved Marine Corps brothers for their dedication and service, and with heartfelt thanks to all who have served or are currently serving.   
   
Semper Fi!

As in years past, it is my honor to share the annual birthday tribute to the United States Marine Corps presented by Bob Parsons, Executive Chairman and Founder of Go Daddy.  Please click HERE to view this 239th birthday presentation.   

In addition to the annual birthday tribute, GoDaddy is partnering with the Semper Fi Fund and  America's Fund to raise money to help critically ill and injured members of all of the United States Armed Forces and their families.  The Bob and Renee Parsons Foundation and GoDaddy.com will match up to $5 million in donations.
The Injured Marine Semper Fi Fund and the America's Fund provide financial support for injured and critically ill members of the U.S. Armed Forces and their families during times of hospitalization and recovery, as well as assistance for those with ongoing medical needs.  

You have the power to make a difference.  Click HERE to help GoDaddy help those heroes who've given so much for our freedom. 
-----
 IN LOVING MEMORY OF BOB "HEAVY" PETRELLA
Every November 10th, my husband and his Marine Corps buddies call to wish each other a happy birthday.  This year, there will be one phone call less... today and always we remember with deep love and affection our dear friend, Bob "Heavy" Petrella, who was  a USMC Captain during the Vietnam War and was a recipient of 2 Purple Hearts and a Bronze Star for valor.

Thanks for the all the great memories, Heavy!  We love you, man!
--------

I invite you to check out this website for a painting titled 
VIETNAM ELEGY 
 created by our dear friend, renowned artist, Denham Clements.




Sunday, November 2, 2014

Cromford Report - October Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™/
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $125.69 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.7% below the $126.63 we now measure for September 15. Our forecast range was $123.11 to $128.13 with a mid-point of $125.62. Last month's forecast therefore proved to be among the most accurate we have ever experienced, being only 7c higher than the mid point.

On October 15, REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $88.44 per sq. ft. (down 0.6%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $94.10 (down 6.6%) while normal sales averaged $128.62 (down 0.7%). The market share of normal sales was unchanged over the last 30 days at 89.5% of sales. REOs gained market share from 6.3% to 6.5%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures lost market share from 4.2% to 4.0%. 

On October 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $131.10, 3.1% above the reading for September 15. Among those pending listings we have 81.0% normal, 7.6% in REOs and 11.4% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings within Greater Phoenix on September 15 in each category was: $139.00 for normal, $91.35 for short sales & pre-foreclosures and $90.74 for REOs. All of these are higher than last month, especially the figure for normal sales. 

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $129.59, which is 3.1% higher than the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $127.00 to $132.18. Our forecast this month is for a fairly large increase in sales pricing over the next month. This goes against the prevailing trend but is based on the strong move upward in the pending $/SF over the last month. Month to month forecasting has been hazardous this year with considerable volatility from one month to the next. This optimistic forecast is due primarily to a favorable change in the mix of properties in escrow, rather than an underlying strength in pricing. The underlying longer term price trend is still slightly negative.
With demand remaining weak, we still expect the natural price range to remain stuck between $123 and $133 in the next few months.

In the current conditions we believe the strongest pricing of the year has already occurred between March and June. Pricing is likely to show at least some degree of weakness during the last 3 months of the year due to the usual seasonal increase in supply and lower sales volumes. We would need to see a sudden strong recovery in demand to change this expectation.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Questions to Ask Before Buying a Home

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted:  October 27, 2014


"If you are thinking about purchasing a home right now, you are surely getting a lot of advice. Though your friends and family have your best interests at heart, they may not be fully aware of your needs and what is currently happening in real estate. Let’s look at whether or not now is actually a good time for you to buy a home."

There are three questions you should ask before purchasing in today’s market:

1. Why am I buying a home in the first place?

This truly is the most important question to answer. Forget the finances for a minute. Why did you even begin to consider purchasing a home? For most, the reason has nothing to do with finances. A study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University reveals that the four major reasons people buy a home have nothing to do with money:
  • A good place to raise children and for them to get a good education
  • A place where you and your family feel safe
  • More space for you and your family
  • Control of the space
What non-financial benefits will you and your family derive from owning a home? The answer to that question should be the biggest reason you decide to purchase or not.

2. Where are home values headed?

When looking at future housing values, Home Price Expectation Survey provides a fair assessment. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.
Here is what the experts projected in the latest survey:
  • Home values will appreciate by 4% in 2015.
  • The cumulative appreciation will be 19.5% by 2018.
  • Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of over 11.2% by 2018.

3. Where are mortgage interest rates headed?

A buyer must be concerned about more than just prices. The ‘long term cost’ of a home can be dramatically impacted by an increase in mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of RealtorsFannie Mae and Freddie Mac have all projected that mortgage interest rates will increase by approximately one full percentage over the next twelve months.

Bottom Line

Only you and your family can know for certain the right time to purchase a home. Answering these questions will help you make that decision.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Even if You Don’t Qualify for a Standard Mortgage, There May Be Ways to Get a Loan

Source:  The Washington Post
Article by
October 3, 2014

Note:  “QM” refers to the federal Qualified Mortgage rules that are designed to foster safe lending.

Here’s some good news: A small but growing number of lenders has begun offering mortgages with more-flexible terms designed for borrowers like you.
 
Say you have solid credit scores and money in the bank but because of student loans or medical bills, your debt-to-income ratio exceeds the maximum that federal rules generally prescribe. Or maybe you are self-employed and find it difficult to assemble the documentation most lenders require on income, even though one glance at your bank statements would show that you earn enough to qualify. Perhaps you did a short sale on your underwater home a couple of years ago, too recently to meet the four-year minimum wait time prescribed by giant investor Fannie Mae before you are allowed to obtain a new mortgage.

Impac Mortgage, a New York Stock Exchange-traded company based in Irvine, Calif., has begun making loans nationwide — $30 million in the past couple of months — on what it calls “Alternative QM” mortgages to several categories of creditworthy borrowers with special needs:
Near-miss buyers, who don’t quite qualify under standard rules. Say they have solid credit scores and good jobs but have a debt-to-income ratio of 49 percent. They’re likely to have difficulty under Fannie Mae’s or Freddie Mac’s underwriting systems, but Impac may fund them after taking a hard look at their bank reserves and assets.
Self-employed professionals and business owners. They generally can’t show IRS W-2 forms and may have irregular income flows, complex tax situations and periodically high debt levels. Impac allows them to document their income using 12 months of recent bank statements and to have debt-to-income ratios as high as 50 percent.
Investors with multiple properties. Investors who own 10 or more rental homes or commercial properties and seek to refinance and pull money out are frequently turned down by conventional lenders. Impac evaluates borrowers’ incomes based on the properties’ cash flows, and it has no limit on total properties an applicant can own. 

Click HERE for complete article.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Cromford Report - Market Summary for the Beginning of October


Source:  The Cromford Report™ 
Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report™ /
Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


"The flow of new listings has remained very low and yet the weakness in demand is sufficient to cause active listings to rise. In the last four weeks we saw 10.2% fewer new listings than last year and 7.9% fewer than in 2012.

There is still no significant sign of an improvement in demand, although comparisons with 2013 are much easier now because the slump in demand started in August 2013.


Last month we expected to be in a very neutral market with demand and supply in almost exact balance. Although we saw a little improvement it was smaller than we expected and the trend turned a little more negative for sellers in the last two weeks.

Sales in September 2013 were unusually weak and at the time we blamed it on the government shutdown. Sales in September 2014 were slightly weaker than last year which reflects the lack of financing available to ordinary homeowners. Tight lending standards, especially for first time home buyers seem to be having a major negative effect on demand. If Ben Bernanke cannot successfully refinance his home based on current lending rules, what hope do the rest of us have?" 

Go the the CROMFORD REPORT page at the top of my PookBellini.com website for the complete report.

Homeownership: A Few Stats and Quotes

Courtesy of Keep Current Matters/the KCM Blog
Posted: 29 Sep 2014 04:00 AM PDT

2014 American Express Spending & Saving Tracker

“About two-thirds (65%) of homeowners say they are confident they would get the asking price for their home if they were to put it on the market today (up from 40% in 2010).”

Financial Security Index Survey

“Eighty nine percent of Americans feel that buying a home is an important part of achieving the American Dream.”

“How America Views Homeownership” Survey

“Sixty eight percent of Americans feel that now is a good time to buy a home.”

Housing Confidence Index

“A two-thirds majority of renter households said that owning a home someday is a specific goal that they are determined to reach, or something that they think about a lot."

Fannie Mae

“Homes have accounted for 23.5% of American’s wealth on average since 1959. That’s nearly double the proportion U.S. households and nonprofits have invested in stocks.”

Wall Street Journal

“A measure of owners' equity as a share of the value of real-estate holdings hit 53.6% in the second quarter, up from 53.2% in the first quarter and below 50% a year earlier. For most Americans, a home is their biggest asset, so the growing level of home equity suggests improvements in the economy are now reaching more Americans.”

Monday, September 15, 2014

Randy Johnson Lists Paradise Valley Home for $25 Million

Source:  AZ CENTRAL/The Arizona Republic
Article by:  Catherine Reagor, The Republic 
azcentral.com 2:36 p.m. MST August 31, 2014
 

Below is a link to a recent ARIZONA CENTRAL article about retired former Diamondback star Randy Johnson's PV home that is listed at $25,000,000.  Johnson retired in 2010 as a 10-time All Star and five-time Cy Young Award winner with a career record of 303-166 with the Montreal Expos, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants.

Johnson's beautiful 25,000+ square foot Tuscsan-style mansion is located on 5+ acres near Mummy Mountain in Paradise Valley.

Link: RANDY JOHNSON HOME FOR SALE

    

Sunday, September 14, 2014

200th Annivwersary of the Star-Spangled Banner

Here's a link to the Smithsonian's excellent page about the Star-Spangled Banner:
http://www.si.edu/Encyclopedia_SI/nmah/starflag.htm


In honor of the 200th anniversary of our national anthem, here is one of the all-time great renditions done by Whitney Houston at Super Bowl XXV in 1991.  It was re-released after the terrorist attacks on 9/11... 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_lCmBvYMRs

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Phoenix Area Flooding and Flood Insurance Information

Flooding in Mesa, 







Sept. 9, 2014.(Photo: The Republic)










This week the Phoenix metro area received record-breaking rainfall and many areas experienced severe flooding. Initial news reports were calling it the "hundred year flood." Later reports on local news stations were calling it the "500 year flood" and one even called it a possible "1,000 year flood." As some areas still remain under water and some folks are dealing with the aftermath of extensive flooding, many people are discovering that their homeowner's insurance does not cover this type of water damage.

With this in mind, it is important that all homeowners review their insurance coverage, take the time to check out FEMA flood maps,  and give serious consideration to getting flood insurance.  Flood maps can change, so even if you've checked area maps previously, it's a good idea to review your area flood map again. (See links below.)

According to a recent ArizonaCentral article, "Flood insurance has a 30-day delay before coverage starts. But there's no waiting period for sewer and drain backup coverage, which can be added as an endorsement to standard policies.

Because public infrastructure such as sewer systems often takes a beating during heavy storms, this can be a wise purchase and typically doesn't cost much."

Below are links to FEMA Flood map information and to the Maricopa County Flood Control District.  Take a few minutes to check them out.


The FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) Flood Map Service Center (MSC) is the official public source for flood hazard information produced in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Use the MSC to find your official flood map, access a range of other flood hazard products, and take advantage of tools for better understanding flood risk.


For the most current information for your area, go to the FEMA Map Service Center (MSC) website:  https://msc.fema.gov/portal 

The Maricopa County Flood Control District:  Click HERE

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Cromford Report: Market Summary for the Beginning of September

Source: Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report
Director Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice
WP Carey School of Business Arizona State University


Last month we mentioned that we expected active listings to grow between August and November. This may still turn out to be true, but they certainly did NOT grow between August and September. This is quite unusual and shows us how extreme the shortage of new listings has become. New listings have been arriving at a rate which is lower than in any August we have seen since 2001. In the last four weeks we saw 15.6% fewer new listings than last year and 13.2% fewer than in August 2012, the previous low record holder. It is quite surprising that a slump in demand would be followed by a slump in supply, but it is certainly good news for sellers who might otherwise be facing growing competition from other sellers. If demand were to recover to normal levels now we could be facing a supply shortage fairly quickly.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for September 1, 2014 relative to September 1, 2013 for all areas & types:


  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 23,296 versus 18,182 last year - up 28.1% - but down 2.5% from 23,900 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB): 26,142 versus 21,359 last year - up 22.4% - but down 3.8% compared with 26,887 last month
  • Pending Listings: 5,951 versus 7,302 last year - down 18.5% - and down 2.1% from 6,079 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 8,797 versus 10,479 last year - down 16.1% - and down 3.0% from 9,066 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,417 versus 7,187 last year - down 10.7% - and down 6.2% from 6,844 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $126.10 versus $119.38 last year - up 5.6% - but down 0.4% from $126.60 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $196,000 versus $182,000 last year - up 7.7% - but down 0.5% from $197,000 last month
Active listings (excluding UCB) rose 9.5% between August 1 and September 1 in 2013 but fell this year by 3.8%.

Demand has shown a few small signs of improvement in some isolated areas, such as Chandler, Tempe, and several locations in the West Valley. High end luxury homes continue to sell very well. Across Greater Phoenix in August we saw 19 closed sales of homes priced over $2,000,000, up from 10 in August 2013. We still have 32 listings under contract for homes of $2,000,000 or more, with 2 ultra-luxury listings over $10,000,000 currently in escrow. However the entry level luxury market is not looking quite so strong.

By this time next month we expect to be in a very neutral market with demand and supply in almost exact balance.


Friday, September 5, 2014

Real Estate Report: No Housing Bubble Right Now in Phoenix


Mike Orr Source:  W. P. Carey School of Business/Arizona State University
https://asunews.asu.edu/20140903-business-orr-housing-report-real-estate
Posted: September 03, 2014 

Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business, created new, enhanced real estate content to complement his monthly housing reports.

The Phoenix-area housing market is not creating another housing bubble to pop anytime soon. The latest monthly report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University shows a lack of enthusiasm from both buyers and sellers. Here are the latest details on Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of July:
• The median single-family-home sales price went up 8 percent from last July, but forward price movement is greatly slowing down.
• Activity in the market was also much slower this July than last July, with the number of single-family-home sales down 19 percent.
• The W. P. Carey School is launching an enhanced-content website where those interested in more in-depth housing-market statistics can get customized views of what’s happening.

Phoenix-area home prices dramatically recovered from the housing crash, quickly rising from September 2011 to last summer. This year, prices dropped a little, leveled off and then finally, the median single-family-home price rose this summer. The median jumped 8 percent – from $194,000 last July to $210,000 this July. Realtors will note the average price per square foot also went up about 8 percent. The median townhouse/condo price went up about 6 percent to $130,000. However, don’t expect much more upward momentum.

“Most of the median-price increase over the last 12 months is because a greater percentage of the homes being sold are in the luxury market, not because home values overall are increasing,” says the report’s author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “We anticipate pricing will move sideways or slightly down over the next few months until supply and demand get back into balance.”

At the moment, both demand and supply are low in the Phoenix area. The amount of single-family-home sales dropped 19 percent from last July to this July. (The only bright spot is new-home sales, which increased their market share from 9 to 12 percent.) Investors have focused on other areas of the country with better bargains, so the percentage of residential properties they bought in July was just 13.6 percent, down from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012. Orr says other home buyers aren’t stepping in and supply isn’t rebounding.

“Usually, when demand is weak for an extended period, supply starts to grow, as it did in the second half of 2005 and throughout 2006 and 2007, heralding the collapse of the housing bubble,” Orr explains. “However, this summer, supply is slowly weakening. It appears that the lack of enthusiasm among buyers has spread to sellers, instead of causing them to panic. Many sellers clearly have the patience to wait for better times and are unwilling to drop prices to dispose of their homes.”

Orr adds the choices for anyone who wants to buy a Phoenix-area house for less than $175,000 are pretty slim. For example, bargain foreclosures are few and far between. Completed foreclosures on single-family homes and condos are down 45 percent this July from last July.

The limited options at the low end of the market are also contributing to the booming demand for single-family rental homes. Orr says fast turnover and low vacancy rates have already pushed the rent on single-family homes in the most popular areas up 7.5 percent over the last 12 months. Affordable apartment and condo rentals have also become hard to find.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Falling Rates Spur Loan Demand in Latest Week


Source: REALTOR®Mag
National Association of REALTORS®
Daily Real Estate News | Wednesday, September 03, 2014 
 
Mortgage applications were on the rise last week as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage sank to its lowest level of the year, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports Wednesday.

Applications for home purchases and refinancings rose 0.2 percent in the week ending Aug. 29, according to the MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity. Broken out, refinancing applications increased 1.4 percent, while applications for home purchases, viewed as a leading indicator of future home sales, dropped 1.5 percent during the week.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.25 percent in the week, the lowest level since June 2013, the MBA reports.

Source: “U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise in Latest Week: MBA,” Reuters (Sept. 3, 2014)

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Checklist for HVAC Maintenance

Source: HouseLogic 
Courtesy of the National Association of REALTORS®


Here's an easy, doable preventive maintenance plan to keep your HVAC in top shapeCLICK HERE

Includes things to do now, monthly or seasonally, and annually.

HOUSE LOGIC- Topics of Interest can always be found at pookbellini.com


Friday, August 15, 2014

Housing Trends eNewsletter

I'm pleased to share the August edition of the Housing Trends eNewsletter with you.
Housing Trends eNewsletter contains Local Market Reports for over 150 Local Markets in 46 states with local prices and number of sales by state prepared by the National Association of REALTORS®.

Housing Trends eNewsletter is also filled with local and national real estate sales and price activity provided by MLSs and the National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau key market indicators, housing market video reports, blogs, real estate glossary, maps, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, community reports that map shopping, schools, recreation and more.

Please check it out!  The most current Housing Trends eNewsletter can always be found at pookbellini.com.

 

Friday, July 18, 2014

Cromford Report: Michael Orr on the Current Market

Source:  Michael J. Orr, Owner/Founder of The Cromford Report
Director Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice
WP Carey School of Business
Arizona State University


July 17
The single family home market continues to climb very slowly out of its buyer's market towards neutral territory. When we look at the 29 major and secondary cities we see the following Cromford® Market Index values:

There is clearly a big spread, with the active-adult markets focused on baby boomers (Sun Lakes, Sun City West, Sun City) doing much better than the average city. However we also see recent strong improvements in the luxury markets of Paradise Valley, Gold Canyon, Fountain Hills and Scottsdale. Northwest Pinal County (Maricopa & Casa Grande) is also showing a good improving trend.
Overall there are only 8 cities showing deterioration from a seller's perspective, 1 unchanged and 20 showing improvement.
The cities with a strong improving trend over the past week are:
  1. Paradise Valley
  2. Gold Canyon
  3. Fountain Hills
  4. Tolleson
  5. Glendale
  6. Apache Junction
  7. Sun Lakes
  8. Scottsdale
  9. Sun City West
  10. Casa Grande
  11. Maricopa
  12. Surprise
  13. Sun City
  14. El Mirage
  15. Anthem

There are only 2 cities with a strong deteriorating trend over the last week:
  1. Arizona City
  2. Queen Creek
This doesn't represent a hot market as demand is still dismal, but the supply is adjusting to the low demand and in most places, so are prices. Where prices are weakening slightly, demand is showing some signs of improving. This is how the market is supposed to work.

The Cost of Waiting a Year

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/the KCM Blog
Posted: 18 Jul 2014 04:00 AM PDT
Cost of Waiting a Year | Keeping Current Matters
Freddie Mac: http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf
Home Price Expectation Survey: https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2014_HPE_Survey.php

Friday, July 4, 2014

Happy 4th of July!

Wishing you a Safe and Happy

With thanks to Laura Wrigley of First American Title for the following message:

What It Means to Be an American

To believe in the promise
of a better tomorrow,
and stand united in our efforts
to give a peaceful nation
to our children...

To honor each other's differences
and cherish the richness of our history,
even as it continues to unfold
from sea to shining sea...

To love deeply
our friends and family, day by day,
and never take for granted
the privilege of calling ourselves American.



There are few things that I can recall with clarity from my high school days, but one thing that has always remained with me are the powerful words of Declaration of Independence.  Today I still remember those eloquent first words that declared separation from a tyrannical government and I am reminded of the brilliance of the men who envisioned a country where all men are created equal, where Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness are given rights, and where endless opportunity is available to all.  On this Fourth of July 2014, I invite you to join me in reflecting on the words that our Founding Fathers declared 238 years ago...

IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

People in New England began fighting the British for their independence in 1775.  On July 2, 1776, the Congress secretly voted for independence from Great Britain. The Declaration of Independence was first published two days later on July 4, 1776. The first public reading of the Declaration of Independence was on July 8, 1776.  Delegates began to sign the Declaration of Independence on August 2, 1776.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

FOREIGN BUYERS & SELLERS INFORMATION

It is extremely important that any buyer or seller who is not a U.S. citizen seek competent professional advice before entering into a real estate transaction.

Below are several excellent resources:

First American Title Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act  (FIRPTA) Resource Info:  



Keats, Connelly and Associates is the largest cross-border wealth management firm in North America that specializes in assisting Canadians and Americans realize their dreams of a cross-border lifestyle.

Written by Mr. Robert Keats, founder of Keats, Connelly and Associates, The Border Guide has sold over 70,000 copies and is considered the definitive cross-border financial tool for Canadians living, working and investing in the United States. The book is available at the Keats, Connelly and Associates website.

This is not an endorsement of this company. It is provided here as one possible resource for those seeking professional advice.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Update on Millennials and Student Debt

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

As a follow-up to my posting last week about Millennials, here's today's latest update from Keeping Current Matters...

Millennials and Student Debt: We Knew They Were Wrong!
Posted: 30 Jun 2014 04:00 AM PDT

For almost a year now, we have been trying to debunk the myth that student debt is keeping the vast majority of Millennials from purchasing a home.

We explained that Millennials have purchased more homes over a recent twelve month period than any other generation as was reported by the National Association of Realtors).

We explained that the homeownership rate of people currently between the ages of 25-29 is 34.3%. That is higher than the 33.6% rate members of the previous generation (people currently between the ages of 45-49) achieved when they were that age (as per John Burns Consulting).

We explained that a recent survey showed that almost three out of every four (74%) young adults between the ages of 18-34 plan to buy a home in the next five years with 32% planning to do it in the next twelve months.

However, no matter how hard we tried, the same recourse was trumpeted back at us – What about student debt?

The good news is that the real facts about student debt are coming to light. Last week, The New York Times posted an article titled The Reality of Student Debt Is Different from the Clichés. This article went into great depth regarding the findings of a new study just released by the Brookings Institution, Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon? which looked at data through 2010. The NYT article quoted key elements of the report:
  • 58% of young-adult households have less than $10,000 in debt. An additional 18% have between $10,000 and $20,000
  • 36% of households with people between the ages of 20 and 40 had education debt, up from 14% in 1989. Some of the increase stems from the good news that more people are going to college.
  • Taking financial aid into account, the average tuition at private (nonprofit) colleges has not increased any faster than overall inflation over the last decade.
  • Because the incomes of college graduates have grown since the early 1990s, the share of income that a typical student debtor has to devote to loan payments is only marginally higher than it was in the early 1990s — and somewhat lower than it was in late 1990s. It was 3.5% in 1992, 4.3% in 1998 and 4% in 2010.
  • The burden for the people with the most debt is significantly lower today than two decades ago. Someone at the 90th percentile of debt had to devote 15% of their income to repayment in 2010, down from 20% in 1992.
Bottom Line
The authors of the actual study put it simply in their conclusion:

“Despite the widely held belief that circumstances for borrowers with student loan debt are growing worse over time, our findings reveal no evidence in support of this narrative. In fact, the average growth in lifetime income among households with student loan debt easily exceeds the average growth in debt, suggesting that, all else equal, households with debt today are in a better financial position than households with debt were two decades ago. Furthermore, the incidence of burdensome monthly payments does not appear to have become more widespread over the last two decades.”

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Pook's Message - 6/24/14

I find today's Keeping Current Matters article about Millennials (born 1980-1995) in the real estate market to be quite interesting.  The article refers to a recent report put out by the National Association of REALTORS® that indicates that Millennials make up 31% of Buyers and 12% of Sellers nationally.  While many Millennials are actually not diving into the real estate market today due to huge student loan and credit card debt, and lack of savings, there does appear to be a significant number who are, at least, dipping their toes in.  According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, "the Millennial generation, which is under the age of 34, is now entering the peak period in which people typically buy a first home. 'Given that Millennials are the largest generation in history after the baby boomers, it means there is a potential for strong underlying demand. Moreover, their aspiration and the long-term investment aspect to owning a home remain solid among young people,' he said.  “However, the challenges of tight credit, limited inventory, eroding affordability and high debt loads have limited the capacity of young people to own."  In an April 29th Wall Street Journal article, Conor Dougherty noted that "the U.S. homeownership rate hit its lowest level since the mid-1990s, according to a Census release that showed that despite two years of recovery in the housing market there are still fewer homeowners than there were before the recession.  But the data also suggest that "more young people are moving out of their parents' home and into rentals--a positive first step toward an eventual recovery in the share of households that own their home." 

Monday, June 23, 2014

Millennials: They ARE Buying & Selling Houses

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/the KCM Blog


Millennials Are Buying & Selling Houses | The KCM CrewA recent study by the National Association of Realtors, Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends, revealed that Millennials are a much higher percentage of the overall housing market than the public may realize. Here are the breakdowns:

BUYERS

Millennial Buyers | The KCM Crew

SELLERS

Millennial Sellers | The KCM Crew

Bottom Line

Contrary to what many believe, Millennials make up the largest percentage of all buyers and a substantial percentage of all sellers.

Highlights of National Association of REALTORS® Report:


  • Gen Y comprises the largest share of home buyers at 31 percent, followed by Gen X at 30 percent, and both Younger (16 percent) and Older Boomers (14 percent) at 30 percent. The Silent Generation has the smallest share of home buyers at nine percent.
  • Gen Y has the largest share of first-time buyers at 76 percent. The share of first-time buyers declines as age increases. Among the Silent Generation only two percent of buyers are first-time buyers.
  • Among all generations of home buyers the first step in the home buying process is looking online for properties for sale. Gen Y is most likely among generations to also look online for information about the home buying process, while the Silent Generation is most likely to contact a real estate agent.
  • More than half of Gen Y and Gen X buyers used a mobile device during their home search. Among those who did, 26 percent of Gen Y and 22 percent of Gen X found the home they ultimately purchased via a mobile device.
  • Younger buyers were predominately referred to their agent through a friend, neighbor, or relative, while older buyers were more likely to use an agent again that they previously used to buy or sell a home.
  • Overall 88 percent of recent buyers financed their home purchase. Nearly all (97 percent) of Gen Y buyers financed compared to just 55 percent of Silent Generation buyers.
  • Among the generations, Gen X (29 percent) is the largest group who are recent home sellers followed by both Older Boomers (22 percent) and Younger Boomers (21 percent).
  • Younger sellers are more likely to use the same real estate agent or broker for their home purchase than older sellers, as they are typically moving closer to their previous residence.