Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Wishing You and Yours a Very Happy Thanksgiving

 
As you are surrounded by friends and family today and as you think about those who may be separated by distance or circumstance, may you find peace and joy in the beauty and blessings of your life.

From my family to yours, best wishes for a wonderful Thanksgiving.
 
Fondest regards,
Pook 

As has become my personal tradition each year, I share the words of Abigail Van Buren (Dear Abby)...

O, heavenly Father: We thank thee for food and remember the hungry. We thank thee for health and remember the sick. We thank thee for friends and remember the friendless. We thank thee for freedom and remember the enslaved. May these remembrances stir us to service, that thy gifts to us may be used for others.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Buying a Home? Consider COST not just Price


bigstockphoto_Property_Prices_814896 We have often talked about the difference between COST and PRICE. As a seller, you will be most concerned about ‘short term price’ – where home values are headed over the next six months. As a buyer, you must be concerned not about price but instead about the ‘long term cost’ of the home. Let us explain.
Last month, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all projected that mortgage interest rates will increase by about one full percentage over the next twelve months. We also know that many experts are calling for home prices to also increase over the next year.

What Does This Mean to a Buyer?

Here is a simple demonstration of what impact an interest rate increase would have on the mortgage payment of a home selling for approximately $250,000 even if home prices don’t increase:


Saturday, November 9, 2013

Veterans Day 2013


Veterans Day is celebrated on November 11th, the anniversary of the signing of the Armistice that ended World War I.  The main hostilities of WWI were properly finished at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, with Germany signing the Armistice.

 


Heartfelt thanks go out to the men and women who have served in our armed forces, protecting our nation, and preserving the freedoms we cherish. 

Happy 238th Birthday to the United State Marine Corps


As in years past, it is my honor to share the annual birthday tribute to the United States Marine Corps presented by Bob Parsons, Executive Chairman and Founder of Go Daddy.  Please click HERE to view this 238th birthday presentation.   

In addition to the annual birthday tribute, GoDaddy is partnering with the Semper Fi Fund and  America's Fund to raise money to help critically ill and injured members of all of the United States Armed Forces and their families.  The Bob and Renee Parsons Foundation and GoDaddy.com will match up to $1 million in donations.
The Injured Marine Semper Fi Fund and the America's Fund provide financial support for injured and critically ill members of the U.S. Armed Forces and their families during times of hospitalization and recovery, as well as assistance for those with ongoing medical needs.  

You have the power to make a difference.  Click HERE to help GoDaddy help those heroes who've given so much for our freedom. 

With love and thanks to my husband and his beloved Marine Corps brothers for their dedication and service, and with heartfelt thanks to all who have served or are currently serving.  Semper Fi!

Friday, November 8, 2013

Is This a Buyer's or Seller's Market?

Here in the metro Phoenix area we are very fortunate to have Michael Orr, founder of The Cromford Reportand director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, providing us with the most up-to-date information on current market conditions, including the Cromford Market Index™, which is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years.  The Cromford Market Index™ can be applied to the whole market or to any subset, provided that subset is large enough to be meaningful.  It compensates for seasonal factors and measures supply and demand based on long term historical trends.  Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. 


Cromford Observation on November 7 - "We are seeing demand continue to fall but at a decelerating rate now we are well into November. It is possible that October was the worst month for buyer sentiment decline in a long time and things look like they may be starting to moderate now. Here are the latest Cromford Market Index™  values for the single family home markets in various cities, and in parentheses a comparison with the previous month (October 7)":
  • Sun Lakes - 166.6 (237.6)
  • Sun City West - 153.1 (188.9)
  • Arizona City - 145.2 (166.7)
  • Glendale 107.6 (129.9)
  • Sun City - 116.5 (158.4)
  • El Mirage - 109.6 (116.5)
  • Cave Creek - 109.3 (124.0)
  • Paradise Valley - 108.1 (137.4)
  • Chandler 106.3 (115.2)
  • Apache Junction - 104.9 (124.3)
  • Scottsdale 104.2 (131.1)
  • Avondale - 104.0 (132.4)
  • Phoenix - 100.4 (120.9)
  • Mesa - 98.8 (121.0)
  • Goodyear - 96.9 (126.7)
  • Peoria - 95.8 (121.1)
  • Gilbert - 95.1 (110.8)
  • Anthem - 91.6 (99.9)
  • Litchfield Park - 88.6 (114.2)
  • Laveen - 87.3 (113.3)
  • Surprise - 85.7 (110.1)
  • Tolleson - 86.1 (91.4)
  • Fountain Hills - 81.7 (119.0)
  • Gold Canyon - 79.9 (95.2)
  • Buckeye - 78.3 (93.1)
  • Tempe - 74.9 (94.7)
  • Casa Grande - 67.9 (84.8)
  • Queen Creek - 66.2 (87.5) - includes San Tan Valley unincorporated area
  • Maricopa - 53.9 (67.5)

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Home Prices Post Strongest Annual Gain in Nearly 8 Years

Source:  Inman News
Date:  11/6/13

Check out the link below to read this informative article...

Home prices rose at fastest annual clip in nearly 8 years in Q3 | Inman News

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Home Prices Are Up Again in Metro Phoenix

Source:  ArizonaCentral.com
Date:  11/5/13
Arizona Republic Article By:  



Thursday, August 29, 2013

The COST of a Home: Last Year, This Year & Next Year

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted: 26 Aug 2013

Same Price, Lesser CostThe cost of a home is determined mainly by two components: price and mortgage rate. Today, we want to show how the monthly cost of purchasing a median priced home has changed over the last twelve months and how it might change over the next twelve months. For the first two examples, we will be using the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Existing Home Sales Report to establish median price and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey to establish mortgage rate. We also assumed a 20% down payment in all examples.

 

LAST YEAR

The median priced home in the country was selling for $187,800. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 3.5%. Here is what it would cost to buy a home last year:
Last Year

 

TODAY

The median priced home in the country is selling for $213,500. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 4.5%. Here is what it would cost a purchaser to buy a home today:
This Year
The monthly cost increased by: $190.78!

 

NEXT YEAR

Projecting into the future in real estate can be rather tricky. To establish future pricing, we depended on the over 100 housing experts surveyed for the Home Price Expectation Survey who called for an approximate appreciation rate of 5% over the next twelve months. For the interest rate, we took the average of the projections from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Here is what these experts project will be the approximate cost of a home a year from now:
Next Year
The monthly cost will increase by about: $97.32!

 

Bottom Line

From a financial perspective, why wait if you are thinking about buying?

Case-Shiller Report

August 27, 2013
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average. Index levels are published with a two-month lag and are released at 9 am EST on the last Tuesday of every month. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is calculated quarterly and levels are published in February, May, August, and November, also with a two-month lag. Index performance is based on non-seasonally adjusted data.

S&P/Case-Shiller Phoenix Home Price Index

The S&P/Case-Shiller Phoenix Home Price Index measures the average change in value of residential real estate in Phoenix given a constant level of quality. It is included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Series which seeks to measure changes in the total value of all existing single-family housing stock.

The Cromford Report™

Courtesy of Fidelity National Title Agency

          Luxury Market Report
          Click HERE for Luxury Market Report

          Northeast Valley Market Report
          Click HERE for NE Valley Market Report  

Where are home prices headed this fall?

CBS News/MoneyWatch
August 22, 2013


Article by Ilyce Glink about prices nationwide, with some specific information related to Phoenix metro area (see quote below).


To get an idea of what might happen in the fall, we can look to Phoenix as a microcosm of the national market. Phoenix has unique housing market seasons: While most markets see a natural uptick in sales and prices in the spring and summer and a corresponding slowdown in the fall and winter, Phoenix doesn't.

Its "fall" season happens during the summer -- when it's just too hot outside to buy houses -- and the market naturally slows down, said Michael Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. 

During the summer, prices have been stable.

"Prices remained almost completely flat, while last year they lost a few percentage points," Orr said.

For Orr, the discussion of the housing market "going soft" is all theoretical. It's a discussion of what might happen, and not what is happening.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

We Mourn the Passing of 19 Brave Young Firefighters

Photo courtesy of Channel 12 News
Words cannot express the profound sadness we Arizonans are feeling as we mourn the loss and honor the memory of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, a group of 19 brave firefighters who perished while fighting the Yarnell Hill fire on Sunday, June 30th.  While we are no strangers to the dangers of summer wild fires and the havoc they cause each year, we take for granted that those fires will be stopped and those who are fighting them will come back safely.  This loss has stunned us all.  Our thoughts and prayers go out to the families of these brave young men, the Prescott Fire Department, and all those who have been affected by this fire.

For those who want to make a contribution to help the families of the 19 fallen heroes during this difficult time, there are several ways you can help.  Donations can be sent to the One Hundred Club of Arizona.  This wonderful organization's mission is "to provide immediate financial assistance to families of public safety officers and firefighters who are seriously injured or killed in the line of duty, and to provide resources to enhance their safety and welfare."
 

Three ways to Donate to the 100 Club Survivors Fund:
 
•Online:
To make a donation to the 100 Club's Survivors Fund in memory of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, click here.

•During the month of July, cash donations can be made at any Credit Union West branch location - account #121734-12 Granite Mountain Hotshots Charity Fund

•Or by mail, make checks payable to the 100 Club of Arizona and mail to:
100 Club of Arizona
5033 North 19th Avenue, Suite 123
Phoenix, AZ. 85015


To donate directly to the families:
Please use the 'Phoenix Firefighters Union Relief Fund'
•Online: www.l493.org
•Or by mail, make checks payable to the Phoenix Firefighters Union Relief Fund and mail to:
UPFFA

61 E. Columbus
Phoenix, AZ 85012


Additionally, for those who want to contribute, 
 Inline image 1
X-treme Apparel of Phoenix has made t-shirts honoring the 19 firefighters who perished while fighting the Yarnell Hill Fire.  The t-shirts cost $10 (plus tax and shipping) and $7 goes directly to the Family Fund for families of the Granite Mountain Hotshots.




As the Yarnell fire continues to burn, there are many families who have lost homes and some who still don't know if their homes are still standing or not.  The American Red Cross Grand Canyon Chapter has set up two shelters in the area.  For information on how you can help the victims,  here is information from KPHO - CBS 5.

Wishing you a SAFE and HAPPY 4th of July!

For those in the Phoenix metro area, here is a list of 4th of July happenings.

 Courtesy of Ryan Mandley of NEXTITLE AGENCY.
Inline image 1


Inline image 1 


Click on HERE to take an Independence Day Quiz.


Scary Times Hit Mortgage Shoppers

Source:  CNNMoney
Article by By Les Christie @CNNMoney June 28, 2013

Market Information

Visit http://pookbellini.com for current market information for PV and Scottsdale.  Contact me for information about other Phoenix metro cities.

Paradise Valley Stats
Paradise Valley Property Searches

Scottsdale Stats
Scottsdale Property Searches


Luxury Market Report for June 2013
(Courtesy of Fidelity Title/The Cromford Report)
NE Valley Report for June 2013
  (Courtesy of Fidelity Title/The Cromford Report)


Housing Trends Newsletter (National RE Info) for June 2013
With resale inventory down, many people are considering new construction homes in the Valley of the Sun. Here's the place to look for new builds throughout the metro Phoenix area...   NEW HOME SEARCH

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Freddie Mac: Rising Mortgage Rates 'Will Not Derail the Recovery'

Courtesy of REALTOR®Mag/National Association of REALTORS®

Daily Real Estate News | June 19, 20113

Freddie Mac: Rising Mortgage Rates 'Will Not Derail the Recovery'

Loan Demand Falls as Rates Continue to Edge Up

Courtesy of REALTOR®Mag/National Association of REALTORS®

Daily Real Estate News | June 19, 20113
Loan Demand Falls as Rates Continue to Edge Up

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Phoenix Home Prices Up 30%... but, NOT Headed for Another Housing Bust

Below are links to two excellent articles by Reporter Kristena Hansen of the Phoenix Business Journal.

Jun 10, 2013
Low supply pushes Phoenix-area home prices up 30 percent in past year
"Limited supply, waning investor interest and a nosedive in foreclosure activity once again pushed metro Phoenix home prices higher in April, according to the latest housing report by Arizona State University."


June 11, 2013
Why Phoenix is NOT Headed for Another Housing Bust
Michael Orr, Director, Center for Real Estate Theory & Practice at Arizona State University, shares his thoughts on why Phoenix isn't heading for another housing bust.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Metro Phoenix median home-sales price up 60% from market low

The Republic | azcentral.com Mon Jun 10, 2013 
 
Metro Phoenix’s median home-sales price climbed to $181,399, an almost 60 percent increase from the real estate crash’s low price in August 2011.

Despite the increase in sales prices, Arizona State University real estate analyst Mike Orr doesn’t project another housing bubble in the Phoenix area anytime soon.

“We predicted prices would rise significantly during the strong annual buying season that lasts until June,” said Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate and Practice at ASU’s W.P. Carey School of Business.

The main reason for higher home sales prices is the chronic shortage of available houses for sale in the Phoenix area, he said. The number of houses listed for sale in the region fell 7.3 percent in April.

Because of rapidly rising home prices, some market watchers are concerned that many investors who bought inexpensive short sale and foreclosure homes and turned them into rentals during the past few years, will try to resell those homes now and create a bubble of oversupply.

“Some commentators talk ominously of a bubble bursting when these homes come back onto the market,” Orr said. “Such talk gets a lot of attention because we are over-sensitized to bubble talk after the disruptive events of 2004 to 2006.”

He said even if all the big investors put their homes on the market next month, that would only add 10,000 to 11,000 houses to the number of listings, and the Valley’s market would still be undersupplied based on demand.

Rising mortgage interest rates are another concern for some housing analysts and prospective buyers.

Orr said sometimes higher interest rates create a greater sense of urgency for homebuyers, which works to increase to demand instead of reducing it.

His forecast is for metro Phoenix home sales prices to continue to climb in coming months, but at a slower pace.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Home Repairs-The Price of Ignoring Them

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted: 07 Jun 2013 







Thursday, June 6, 2013

Home Prices Rising Fastest in the Sand States: Arizona, California, Nevada

Source: Home Buying Institute

The harder they fall, the faster they rise. That seems to be the case with home prices in Arizona, California and Nevada, the so-called ‘Sand States.’ In those states, homeowners enjoyed unbelievable property value gains during the housing boom. As it turned out, they really were unbelievable. The housing collapsed pushed those overinflated home prices off a cliff.

But now, Arizona, California and Nevada are outpacing the rest of the country in terms of home prices. Consider the evidence.

Case-Shiller: Biggest Home Price Gains in the Sand States

According to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which was published on May 28, some of the largest annual home price gains have occurred within the Sand States.
Home prices in Phoenix, Arizona rose by 22.5% between March 2012 and March 2013. Prices in San Francisco climbed by 22.2% during the same period, while Las Vegas experienced an annual gain of 20.6%.

For several months in a row, Phoenix has posted the largest annual increase among metro areas in the Case-Shiller 20-city index.

CoreLogic: Nevada, California and Arizona Leading the Nation

CoreLogic, a real estate data provider, recently published a report that showed cities with the highest returns in home prices. Here again, the Sand States were well represented.
According to the CoreLogic report, home prices in Nevada rose by 24.6% over the last year, the largest annual gain of any U.S. state. Rounding out the top three were California (+19.4%) and Arizona (+17.3%).

Realtor.com: Major Inventory Reduction in California and Southwest

Each month, Realtor.com publishes a housing summary with pricing, listing and inventory data for 146 metro areas in the United States. When you sort the most recent data based on median list price increases, it becomes a who’s who of metro areas within the Sand States. The biggest gains were seen in a dozen of California cities, along with Phoenix, Las Vegas and Reno.

Inventory reduction is a major factor here. All of the Sand States accumulated huge housing surpluses after the crash. Too many properties on the market, and not enough buyers to absorb them all. Cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Sacramento also had a high concentration of distressed properties (foreclosures), as a percentage of total listings. This created a double whammy for home prices, shifting the supply-and-demand balance while saturating the market with low-priced homes.
But the inventory situation has changed for the better. Most of the major metro areas in California have experienced inventory reductions of 30% or higher. According to Realtor.com, the total number of listings in San Francisco has dropped by 31% over the last year. In San Diego, listings have declined by 35%. Orange County has seen a whopping 52% reduction in listings over the last year.

The major metros in Nevada have also experienced inventory declines, though not as sharp as those in California. The total number of homes listed for sale in Las Vegas dropped by 23% over the last year.

Phoenix is an exception to this rule. The inventory situation in Phoenix is actually leveling off right now, following a sharp period of decline that was largely the result of investors. Property listings in Phoenix have only declines by 4.6% over the last year, according to Realtor.com.

Job Growth Has Increased Housing Demand

Arizona, California and Nevada have also experienced significant improvements in their local job markets. During the first quarter of 2012, these states were actually leading the nation in terms of job growth. Collectively, they added 222,100 jobs from August to December of 2011. That accounted for 28% of US employment gains during that period, according to the Department of Labor.

Las Vegas’s unemployment rate peaked at 14.6% in 2010, but fell to 9.6% in April of this year. The jobless rate in the Phoenix metro area dropped from 10.5% to 6.6% over the last three years.
Granted, unemployment rates are still historically high in places like Las Vegas, San Francisco and Los Angeles. But they have all dropped significantly from their recession peaks. This bodes well for home prices because it helps fuel demand. When the employment rate rises, so does the level of housing demand. This puts upward pressure on home prices, especially at a time when inventories are shrinking.

The Sand States – Arizona, California, Nevada and Florida – still have a long way to go, in terms of housing and economic recovery. But they seem to be in a hurry to get there.

Monday, June 3, 2013

When To Buy a House? RIGHT NOW!

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/TheKCM Blog
Posted: 03 Jun 2013


traffic lightsAfter witnessing the housing bubble ‘pop’ just a few years ago, many would be buyers may be hesitant to pull the trigger. Today, we want to explain that the greatest risk a buyer can take right now is actually waiting to buy a home.

We realize that every purchaser wants to be able to get the best deal. They want a great price and the lowest mortgage interest rate possible because those to items together will determine the monthly cost their family will pay. Let’s look at each one:

 

Are home prices rising?

 

Just last week, the Case Shiller Pricing Index was released. The index revealed that U.S. home prices increased by 10.2% over the last twelve months. Last month, the Home Price Expectation Survey was released predicting that home values would increase by at least an additional 3.5% for each of the next five years.

If you were waiting for the absolute bottom of the home price declines, you already missed it.

 

Are interest rates rising?

 

According to Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30 year mortgage rate shot up to 3.81% last week – the highest level in over a year. This is an increase of a half of a percentage point in the last six months. And the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae and the National Association of Realtors all predict that rates will continue rise over the next eighteen months.

 

Conclusion:

 
If the right thing for you and your family is to purchase a home this year, buying sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Home Prices Post Strongest Gains in 7 Years

Source:  CNN Money
@CNNMoney 
May 28, 2013 

U.S. home prices posted their strongest gains since 2006, as the housing recovery continued to gain steam.


home prices peakPrices on the S&P/Case-Shiller national index rose 10.2% in the first quarter, according to the latest report.

That marked the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains, says David Blitzer, head of S&P's index division. 

The strong gains over the past year may be a bit of a statistical mirage, according to Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and co-founder of the index. Foreclosure sales are down, he said, and since foreclosures sell at a steep discount, that's boosted average home prices. 

But eventually the proportion of foreclosure sales will stabilize, and that will make annual price gains less dramatic. 

There's another factor arguing against continued price gains, according to Shiller. Home prices are already at what he considers "normal" levels, adjusted for inflation. Even the steep housing downturn only took prices to where they would have been if they hadn't skyrocketed during the bubble.

Index co-founder Karl Case worries about the pace of new-home construction, which slowed in April. New construction is a big driver of GDP, he said, so that may be a sign that the economic recovery is flagging. 
 
Both economists, however, are still cautiously optimistic for two main reasons. First is the fact that near-record low mortgage rates have made home buying more affordable. The second is all the pent-up demand in the housing market after years of sluggish sales. 

Phoenix recorded the largest year-over-year price spike, with a 22.5% jump. San Francisco prices rose 22.2% and Las Vegas prices grew 20.6%. New York, at just 2.6%, saw a modest annual increase. To top of page

Housing Bubble: Is There a New One Forming?

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted: 29 May 2013 04:00 AM PDT


783773_thumbnailThe housing market is recovering so nicely that it has caused some to wonder whether a new housing bubble is forming. Today, we want to explain that the fear of a new pricing bubble in real estate is unwarranted.

Trulia revealed some great data on this point in a recent blog post. They explained that, even with the recent price increases, national home prices are still 7 percent undervalued. Trulia explained:
“Home prices nationally remain undervalued relative to fundamentals and much lower than in the last bubble. That’s why today’s price gains are actually still a rebound, not a bubble.”
Prices are below their fundamental value in the vast majority of the country (91 of the 100 largest metros). Even in the parts of the country that are now overvalued they come nowhere near the percentages we saw in 2006-2007. For example, let’s look at the two markets that are most overvalued today. In Orange County, California prices are currently overvalued by 9%. In 2006, prices in the region were overvalued by 71%! The second most overvalued market today is Austin, Texas at 5%. Texas real estate prices did not skyrocket as they did in many other parts of the country during the last boom. Austin prices were shown as being 12% overvalued at the time.

Again, prices are still undervalued in 91% of markets and, even in the markets that are overvalued, they are nowhere near the numbers of the 2006-2007 bubble.

Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist, explained:
“So are we in bubble territory? No. Bubble-phobes can rest easy. Even with recent sharp home price increases, prices are still low relative to fundamentals and are far below bubble levels.”
Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller agreed in a recently released report on prices:
“Even if double-digit price appreciation were to continue in former bubble metro areas, there is no reason to believe that new home price bubbles are forming. That’s because single-family homes in these markets are still very affordable, even after last year’s large price gains.”

Three reasons there will NOT be another bubble

Prices are determined by the ratio between supply and demand. Here are three reasons a bubble will be avoided.
  1. Supply is beginning to increase. A lack of inventory is creating a market of multiple bids which has caused prices to rise. The National Association of Realtors (NAR), in their latest Existing Home Sales Report, revealed that the months’ supply of inventory has increased from 4.3 to 5.2 months since January.
  2. Demand will decrease in certain demographics. For an example, investors have been a large part of the housing market over the last several years. As prices continue to rise, a certain percentage of these buyers will back off.
  3. As mortgage rates increase, buyers will be able to afford less. The Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae and NAR have all projected an increase in mortgage rates over the next year. Buying power will decrease as borrowers can no longer afford the same price point as monthly payments will increase.
For these reasons, we believe the fear of a new housing bubble are currently unfounded.

Monday, May 27, 2013

Memorial Day 2013

All gave some... some gave all.
As we enjoy time with family and friends on this Memorial Day, let us be sure to take time to honor the memory of those who made the ultimate sacrifice to protect the freedoms we cherish.

And, as we remember those who died in service to our country, let us give thanks to those who are serving now and to all our Veterans for their past service to our country.


Memorial Day History
American Widow Project
The Origin of Sounding Taps 
You Tube Rememberance
Buglers at Arlington National Cemetery

Sunday, May 26, 2013

The Cost of Waiting to Buy

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Experts have projected that U.S. home prices will appreciate by approximately 5% in 2013. The Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae and the National Association of Realtors have all projected that the 30-year mortgage rate will be at least 4% by the end of 2013. 

Experts have projected that U.S. home prices will appreciate by 5.4% in 2013. If we assume that prices will rise about the same 5% over the next twelve months, here is the difference a buyer will pay if they wait a year.

Note that prices for the metro Phoenix area have gone up and are expected to continue to go up MUCH more than the national average.  According to a May 26th article in USA Today, "Phoenix median homes prices were up 19% year over year in March, CoreLogic says."  The charts below would be VERY different for metro Phoenix.

Price Increase
If we assume that prices and interest rates will rise as projected,
here is the monthly difference a buyer may pay if they wait a year.

Increase in Cost

Latest Market Stats for Paradise Valley and Scottsdale

The latest market stats for PV and Scottsdale have been posted at my website.  These are current through April 2013.  May stats will be posted as soon as they are available.
 
Contact me if you would like stats for any other Metro Phoenix city or zip code.

Thursday, May 2, 2013

15-year Mortgage Rate Hits Record Low

Source:  CNN Money
@CNNMoney May 2, 2013: 

Mortgage rates dropped again this week, with the 15-year fixed-rate loan hitting a record low, according to a report from mortgage financier Freddie Mac.

 

The 15-year fixed rate fell to 2.56% from 2.61%. A year ago, it stood at 3.07.  The most popular mortgage, the 30-year fixed rate, came in at 3.35%, a drop of 0.05 percentage point and only 0.04 percentage point above its record low set the week of November 21, 2012. 

The rates provide a welcome boost to the housing market and to the overall economy, according to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. 

"Residential fixed investment added to overall economic growth over the past eight consecutive quarters and contributed more than 0.3 percentage points in growth over the first three months of this year," he said. "[N]ear record low mortgage rates should further drive the housing market recovery over the near term." 

The news came a day after the Fed announced that it would keep buying up to $85 billion in mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries a month. 

"There was a chance that the Fed would start to taper their purchases as summer approached," said Keith Gumbinger, of HSH.com, a loan information provider. "But that is starting to look less likely, given the still-soft state of the economy. Odds favor that the programs will continue until much later in the year, so mortgage rates should continue to be available at fantastic rates."

Low rates help existing homeowners even if they don't refinance their homes. Affordable loans boost homebuyer demand, sending home prices higher. They've recorded a 9% gain over the past 12 months, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. 

The added home values mean some homeowners will no longer be underwater on their mortgages and can cash in the extra equity should they run into a rough financial patch. They can also sell their homes without resorting to a short sale, in which the price paid is less than what they owe on their mortgages. That saves sellers from a big hit on their credit scores. 

If homeowners do refinance, they often choose 15-year, fixed loans. They are popular with borrowers seeking to shorten their loan terms -- saving themselves on total interest payments. The record low rates enable them to do that without increasing their monthly payments very much. 

Borrowers with three-year-old, 30-year fixed-rate loans at 5% would have a monthly payment of about $537 for every $100,000 borrowed, and would pay out a total of about $93,000 in interest over the course of the mortgage. Switching to a 15-year at 2.57% would increase the payment only to $670 a month but the total interest paid out would come to less than $21,000. 

Mortgage refinance applications rose 1.8% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and account for about 75% of all applications for mortgages. To top of page

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Buying is a Process - Steps to Purchasing a Home

Thinking about purchasing a new home?

I have put together a document called "Buying is a Process - Steps to Purchasing a Home" to help new buyers understand the buying process from beginning to end.  It covers the following items:
  1. Deciding to Buy a Home
  2. Getting Pre-Approved for a Loan
  3. Getting Educated
  4. House Hunting
  5. Preparing an Offer
  6. Submitting an Offer
  7. Contract is Accepted and Escrow is Opened
  8. Prior to Close of Escrow
  9. Close of Escrow 
Please contact me for a copy of this informative document and for a copy of First American Title's invaluable guide, "Buying a Home in Arizona."   

How Housing Is Leading Us Out of the Great Recession

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted: 30 April 2013


We are often asked if the housing market can truly rebound if the all-round economy remains sluggish. We answer by explaining the housing market is not dependent on the economy but rather the economy is reliant on the housing market. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moodys.com, addressed this issue in a recent report.
 “Historically, housing has always led the U.S. out of recessions. It is the most interest rate-sensitive part of the economy, and as rates fall during recessions, housing rises first.”

How does real estate impact the economy?

Real estate impacts the economy in several ways. As Zandi explains:
“Housing’s resurrection is crucial to the creation of more jobs. Every new single-family home creates and sustains almost five jobs for about a year. These include not only construction jobs, but manufacturing positions for producing lumber, paint, nails, plumbing fixtures, carpets, wall board and so on. Truckers are hired to move this material around, and retailers add workers as new homeowners shop at home-improvement and hardware stores. Realtors, mortgage bankers, landscapers and cable installers all increase staff.”

Is the current market momentum sustainable?

If the economy is dependent on a recovering housing market, we need to know whether the current good news being reported in the real estate industry will continue as we move forward. Again, Mr. Zandi:
“The pace of construction has risen to 900,000 homes per year and is set to double to 1.8 million in the next few years. Even this will be only enough to meet demand; in an average year, 1.25 million households are formed, 350,000 houses are irreparably damaged or demolished, and an additional 200,000 are built for use as vacation or second homes. Given pent-up household formation—hundreds of thousands have put off their plans because of the tough job market—there could be a couple of years in which closer to 2 million homes will need to be built to meet demand.”
Housing will remain strong for the next several years. That will enable the economy to continue to heal until it fully recovers.

April 2013 Housing Trends Newsletter

I'm pleased to share this month's Housing Trends eNewsletter with you! 

Housing Trends eNewsletter contains Local Market Reports for over 150 Local Markets in 46 states with local prices and number of sales by state prepared by the National Association of REALTORS®.

Housing Trends eNewsletter is also filled with local and national real estate sales and price activity provided by MLSs and the National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau key market indicators, housing market video reports, blogs, real estate glossary, maps, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, community reports that map shopping, schools, recreation and more.
A link to the Housing Trends eNewsletter can always be found at my website.

Friday, April 5, 2013

Pook's Message - 4/5/13

The Phoenix metro market continues to be very active.  While activity varies by location and price range, in most areas, inventory continues to be extremely low and prices continue to be on the rise, creating a wonderful opportunity for Sellers (many of whom were "underwater" not too long ago) and some real frustration for Buyers.  While in recent years distressed properties (Short Sales, Pre-Foreclosures, and Foreclosures) were a large part of the inventory, I'm happy to say that today "normal" sales once again account for the majority of sales.  Today's articles provide great information on the current market.  Also included today is information from my website on how you can do your own property searches for both resales and new build homes.  Please share this information with friends, family, colleagues, and neighbors!  If you or someone you know are interested in buying, selling, or just "checking out the market," please give me a call.  I'm here to help you!

Warmest regards,

Pook

Mortgage Rates Back Down This Week

Courtesy of REALTOR®Mag/National Association of REALTORS®
Average fixed-rate mortgages dropped this week, as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hovered around 3.5 percent for the past two months, Freddie Mac reports in its weekly mortgage market survey.

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages for mortgage rates for the week ending April 4:
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.54 percent, with an average 0.8 point, dropping from last week’s 3.57 percent average. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.98 percent. 
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.74 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 2.76 percent average. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 3.21 percent. 
  • 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.65 percent, with an average 0.5 point, falling from last week’s 2.68 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.86 percent. 
  • 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.63 percent, with an average 0.4 point, rising from last week’s 2.62 percent average. A year ago, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.78 percent. 
Source: Freddie Mac

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Investors Dropping Out as Phoenix Home Prices Show 36.5 Percent Gains

Source: Phoenix Business Journal - Mar 28, 2013
Article by Kristena Hansen


As the chronic shortage of homes for sale worsened last month, the greater Phoenix housing market kicked off home-buying season with dramatic price gains and a drop in investor interest, according to the latest report Thursday from Arizona State University.

The supply problem shoved median Valley home prices to $170,000 in February -- up by 36.5 percent year-over-year, and by nearly 5 percent from the previous month, the report showed.

The average price per square foot -- a metric commonly used by Realtors -- was $110.44, up almost 31 percent year-over-year. Exasperation with the limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to push buyers toward the new-home market, causing the sales volume of newly built homes to climb 67 percent from February 2012 to February 2013, the report said. New-home sales almost doubled their market share from a year earlier, from 6 percent to 11 percent.

The price gains and short supply indicate sellers are maintaining full control of the market, especially for homes priced at the low end. But as bargain deal -- whether through short sales or foreclosures -- are increasingly harder to come by, investor activity is seeing a “significant down trend,” said the report’s author, Michael Orr, a real estate expert at ASU’s W.P. Carey School of Business.

After reaching a high point last summer, investor purchases accounted for less than 30 percent of all home sales in Maricopa County last month -- down from 37 percent a year ago. “The shortage continues to get more severe among the most affordable housing sectors,” Orr said in the report. “Overall, ‘distressed’ bargain supply is down 32 percent from last February, since we’re seeing fewer foreclosures and short sales. First-time home buyers face tough competition from investors and other bidders for the relatively small number of properties available in their target price range.”

Supply Problem

On March 1, about 12,450 homes in greater Phoenix were listed for sale on the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service — down by 5 percent from Feb. 1 and well below historical norms, the report said.

Nearly 80 percent of those listings were priced at more than $150,000, indicating the inventory shortage is most severe in the lower price ranges -- a harsh reality for many first-time home buyers, who continue facing multiple bids, sometimes within hours of properties hitting the market.

Luxury homes, on the other hand -- listings priced at more than $500,000 -- are seeing a balanced proportion of buyers and sellers, the report said.

Existing homes

The median price for existing single-family homes in February was $183,750, up 25 percent year-over-year. The average price per square foot for existing homes grew by almost 17 percent, to $125.78. Orr said normal resales are now by far the most common type of home sale. In February, normal resales surged by 62 percent year-over-year to about 3,750 for the month. That enabled resales to increase their market share from 28 percent last February to 51 percent last month.

New Homes

New-home sales jumped by 67 percent from a year earlier, to 799 in February. Gilbert had the biggest chunk of those sales, with 146. Goodyear trailed in second place with 74, followed by Peoria’s 69 and Mesa’s 62.

While this is encouraging, Orr said it’s becoming extremely difficult for home builders to keep up with demand. “New homes are not being built in sufficient quantity to match the population growth in the Phoenix area,” he said in the report. “The construction industry remembers overbuilding from 2003 to 2007, contributing to the disaster in 2008 that resulted in layoffs and bankruptcies for some developers. For now, it looks like they will probably build fewer than half the homes needed to keep pace with the current population trends.”

Distressed Properties

Foreclosures and foreclosure starts -- the point when delinquent homeowners receive notice from their lenders saying foreclosure may occur within 90 days -- backslid 25 percent from January to February and by 52 percent year over year. In Maricopa County, there were 1,462 foreclosure starts last month — far below the peak of about 10,100 in March 2009. By the end of next year, Orr predicts foreclosure notices may drop “below long-term averages.”

Although short sales have become a popular alternative to foreclosures, Orr said they have declined as lenders “have been insisting on higher contract prices” before approving short sales, which has “dampened buyer enthusiasm.”

While still slightly less expensive than foreclosures, short sales and pre-foreclosures are still pricier than the average price of a home owned by a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), such as Freddie Mac.

For example, the average price of short sales and pre-foreclosures climbed by about 10 percent year over year in February, to $165,388, while the average price of a GSE-owned home was $160,269. Bank-owned properties, on the other hand, posted a 42 percent jump in average price last month, to $216,498.

Short sales and pre-foreclosures thus accounted for only 11 percent of all sales in February -- almost half their market share last year of 20 percent.

Investors dropping out as Phoenix home prices show 36.5 percent gains - Phoenix Business Journal