Winter and Spring Events in the Valley of the Sun

Whether you're a local or a visitor to the beautiful Valley of the Sun, I hope you'll find pookbellini.com to be a great resource for links to great information about the area.  In addition to the links that are found on the left sidebar year-round, you will also find seasonal highlights.  Below you will find a list of the major Winter and Spring events in the Phoenix/Scottsdale metro area that have recently been added.  If you know of any great events that might be missing, please let me know.  

NOVEMBER

• Zoo Lights
• Glendale Glitters

DECEMBER

• Zoo Lights
• Glendale Glitters
• Las Noches de Las Luminarias (Desert Botanical Gardens)
• Tempe Festival of the Arts

JANUARY

• Glendale Glitters
• Celebration of Fine Art
• P.F. Chang's Rock 'n' Roll Marathon
• Barrett Jackson Car Auction
• Waste Management Phoenix Open

FEBRUARY

• Celebration of Fine Art
• Scottsdale Parada Del Sol Parade
• Scottsdale Arabian Horse Show
• Arizona Beer Week
• Cactus League Baseball

MARCH

• Cactus League Baseball
• Celebration of Fine Art
• Scottsdale Parada Del Sol Rodeo
• Scottsdale Arts Festival
• Arizona Barbeque Festival
• Arizona Bike Week
• Phoenix Film Festival

APRIL

• Phoenix Film Festival
• Scottsdale Culinary Arts Festival
• Pat's Run
• Cave Creek Earth Day Expo
• Earth Day Phoenix
• McDowell Mountain Music Festival

Getting Your Furnace Ready for Winter

Source:  Fidelity National Home Warranty Company

How Much Should You Put Down?

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog 
Posted: 17 Nov 2011
Like most questions, the answer is “it depends”. Today, I thought I’d give you some things to consider.

Let’s begin the discussion with loans that don’t require Mortgage Insurance. The suggestion is to borrow as much as you can afford. As an example, borrowing $310,000, as opposed to $300,000, will increase your mortgage payment by about $51 at 4.5%. Recognize that by doing so, you will have $10,000 in the bank. It is my experience that it is easier to find $50 more every month than it is to save $10,000. Even if you had the discipline to set aside the $50 monthly, it would take you 200 months to re-accumulate the $10,000 in principal (longer with lost interest).

Understand too, that the interest paid on the extra money borrowed is tax-deductible. In a 25% tax bracket the $51 additional has a real cost of about $38!


Having the $10,000 liquid has other potential advantages as well:

1. If rates go up in the future, you could potentially make more interest than you are spending.
2. If you can avoid using credit cards for furniture, home improvements, etc., you can save a bundle on those non-tax deductible interest rate costs.
3. In a world where home values have declined, the more you borrow, the less you have at risk. You transfer the risk of the future value of the home to the lender.

Now, many borrowers today will need some sort of Mortgage Insurance, whether it’s a Conventional Loan with less than 20% down or an FHA Mortgage. These borrowers should sit with their loan officer and run the numbers because the cost of the Mortgage Insurance can vary based on loan-to-value and other factors. Examine the costs and the relative benefits.

Thanksgiving Thoughts

Even in these difficult times, we have so much to be thankful for.  My younger son had to replace his refrigerator this week... although bummed by the unexpected expense and the hassle he faced dealing with defrosting food and searching for a new fridge, he called it a "First World Problem" and acknowledged that he was, at least, fortunate to own a home and to be able to deal with such unplanned events.  Indeed, he's right.  Think of all the things we take for granted each and every day... Think of those who don't know where their next meal is coming from or where they will lay their head tonight.  Think of parents who are unable to feed and clothe their children.  Think of the elderly who can't afford their needed medications. Think of those who owned a home, paid their bills, put food on the table, but today face foreclosure and an unsure future. 

As you sit down at your table this year, or as you celebrate in whatever way is meaningful to you, be thankful and be moved to help others.  As has become my personal tradition each year, I share the words of Abigail Van Buren (Dear Abby)...

 O, heavenly Father: We thank thee for food and remember the hungry. We thank thee for health and remember the sick. We thank thee for friends and remember the friendless. We thank thee for freedom and remember the enslaved. May these remembrances stir us to service, that thy gifts to us may be used for others.

 

Please take a moment to view this Thanksgiving Card. 

With grateful appreciation,
Pook

November Mid-Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Article Courtesy of Michael Orr
The Cromford Report

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
 
For the monthly period ending November 14, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $82.36 averaged for all areas and types. This is 1.7% higher than the $80.99 we now measure for October 15. Our forecast range was $79.06 to $82.26 with a mid-point of $80.67. In a pattern similar to last month, this month the actual figure fell just above our forecast range by 10 cents. Pricing (as measured by $/SF for all areas and types) hit bottom in the second half of August and again in the first half of September but has been moving steadily upwards since then. We are now back at the level we last saw on July 3.


The current price level is 2.01% lower than last year on November 14.


On November 14 REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $62.95 per sq. ft. (up 0.8% from October 15). 


Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $72.25 (up 0.4%) while normal sales averaged $104.56 (up 0.6%). Normal sales gained market share, moving from 35.0% to 36.4% of sales, while REOs were the big losers, moving from 37.9% to 33.8%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures advanced once again this month, moving from 27.1% to 29.8% - another record high.


It is clear that the age of the REO is in decline while short sales and pre-foreclosures are becoming ever more important. As they become scarcer, REOs are getting more expensive. In addition the pricing for short sales and pre-foreclosures is no longer declining.


It is clear that the overall price movement (up 1.7%) is more than twice the movement of each individual component (REO up 0.8%, normal up 0.6%, short sales up 0.4%). This happens because of the change in the mix in favor of more expensive normal and short sales and away from the cheaper REOs.


On November 14 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $80.61, 3.0% above the reading for October 15 - so pending $/SF has moved upwards in a serious way for the first time in many months. This is a very positive signal, especially when all three sales components are moving upwards at the same time. Among pending listings we have a fast growing 30.5% normal, a sharply declining 28.3% REO and a steadily growing 41.2% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings on November 14 in each category were: $110.40 normal, $67.21 short sales & pre-foreclosures and $62.64 for REOs. Normal and REO are significantly higher but short sales and pre-foreclosures are lower than they were was last month. Together with the changing mix this tells us we are likely to see a further rise in sales price per sq. ft. over the next month.


Our new mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on December 14 is $84.79, which is 2.95% above the November 14 reading, and we have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $83.09 to $86.49. A substantial change in the mix can still have a significant effect on the average price per sq. ft. and we are seeing considerable variation from day to day. However notice that even the lowest point in our forecast range is higher than today's reading.


It is now becoming very clear that our reading for September 15 - $78.54 per sq. ft. - will remain the low point over the near term. The lowest monthly average sales price is $150,503 and was also set on September 15. However the record low monthly median sales price is still standing at $107,000 and this was set nine months ago on February 24. Our current monthly median sales price is back up to $112,000, so median price changes have not followed the pattern of average prices or $/SF.

Market Summary for the Beginning of November

Article Courtesy of Michael Orr
The Cromford Report

On the surface the preliminary numbers for October suggest it was quite similar to September. Looking at the ARMLS data across all areas and types we see the following:


Sales per Month: 7,556 in October - down 7% from September but up 16% from this time last year.


Active Listings (including AWC): 27,063 on November 1 - up 0.7% from October 1 but down 40% from this time last year.


Active Listings (excluding AWC): 19,578 on November 1 - up 1.3% from October 1 but down 50% from this time last year.


Pending Sales: 10,509 on November 1, down 3% from October 1, but up 9% compared with this time last year.


Listing Success Rate: 75.9% on November 1 - down slightly from 76.2% on October 1 but up significantly from 56.1% on November 1, 2010.


Contract Ratio: 91.9 on November 1, down from 95.1 on October 1 but up from 39.4 last year at this time.


Days Inventory: 98 on November 1, the same as October 1 but dramatically down from 184 at this time last year


Cromford Market Index™: 156.0 on November 1, down from 159.4 on October 1 and 87.9 on November 1, 2010.


Sales Price as a Percentage of List: 96.70% on November 1, almost the same as 96.84% on October 1 but up from 95.21% on November 1, 2010
Just like in October, we can see that all these numbers are far better than 12 months ago but most are not quite as good as the previous month. Supply rose very slightly while demand declined slightly.
However the overall figures hide some spectacular difference between the geographic areas. For example, when it comes to active listings (including AWC), there was little overall change when averaged across all areas and types (up 0.7%), but the following cities increased their supply of single family detached homes far more than average:

• Rio Verde (up 34%)
• Fountain Hills (up 20%)
• Gold Canyon (up 19%)
• Sun City West (up 18%)
• Sun City (up 15%)
• Avondale (up 14%)
• Waddell (up 12%)
• Sun Lakes (up 10%)
• Surprise (up 9%)
• Anthem (up 7%)
• Scottsdale (up 6%)

The following had significant falls in active single family detached listing counts:

• Youngtown (down 5%)
• Queen Creek (down 6%)
• Tempe (down 8%)
• Apache Junction (down 9%)
• Tonopah (down 12%)
• Laveen (down 13%)

We have emphasized many times that changes in the balance of supply versus demand take a long time to be reflected in changes to pricing. This is illustrated by the latest numbers. The supply increased and demand fell during October, yet pricing made the most positive move it has done for at least 15 months, driven by the large reduction in supply over the last 12 months:

• average active listing $/SF - up 2.3% to $139.98 per sq. ft.
• average pending listing $/SF - up 1.8% to $79.65 per sq. ft.
• average monthly sales $/SF - up 1.1% to $80.95 per sq. ft.

Again, the overall average numbers hide discrepancies between different segments of the market. The monthly average sales price $/SF movements for the different price ranges are:

Price Range	Oct 2011 Avg $/SF	Sep - Oct 2011	One Year Change	Lowest $/SF	Lowest Date	Current $/SF Relative to Lowest $/SF
Below $100,000	$44.67	UP 2.3%	UP 3.0%	$41.63	Feb 2011	UP 7.3%
Below $25,000	$20.10	UP 3.8%	UP 4.7%	$17.92	Aug 2010	UP 12.2%
$25,000 to $49,999	$30.36	DOWN 1.6%	UP 5.4%	$28.07	Sep 2010	UP 8.2%
$50,000 to $74,999	$43.59	UP 3.2%	UP 2.4%	$40.81	Mar 2011	UP 6.8%
$75,000 to $99,999	$51.32	UP 2.5%	UP 1.1%	$48.94	Dec 2010	UP 4.9%
$100,000 to $124,999	$60.64	DOWN 0.9%	DOWN 1.0%	$58.53	Jan 2011	UP 3.6%
$125,000 to $149,999	$69.73	UP 0.2%	UP 1.3%	$66.43	Jan 2011	UP 5.0%
$150,000 to $174,999	$76.05	DOWN 0.3%	UP 2.6%	$74.10	Oct 2010	UP 2.6%
$175,000 to $199,999	$82.39	DOWN 0.8%	DOWN 0.1%	$81.58	Mar 2011	UP 1.0%
$200,000 to $224,999	$88.48	UP 0.8%	UP 1.8%	$85.96	Feb 2011	UP 2.9%
$225,000 to $249,999	$92.90	DOWN 0.5%	DOWN 0.5%	$90.80	Aug 2011	UP 2.3%
$250,000 to $274,999	$98.98	UP 6.2%	UP 4.3%	$95.57	Jan 2011	UP 6.7%
$275,000 to $299,999	$101.81	DOWN 0.9%	DOWN 0.3%	$100.67	Jun 2011	UP 1.1%
$300,000 to $349,999	$114.05	UP 7.4%	UP 8.1%	$101.90	Feb 2009	UP 11.9%
$350,000 to $399,999	$116.00	DOWN 3.2%	DOWN 3.4%	$111.98	Jan 2009	UP 3.6%
$400,000 to $499,999	$132.77	UP 2.9%	UP 4.2%	$126.12	Mar 2009	UP 5.3%
$500,000 to $599,999	$149.22	UP 1.8%	UP 2.1%	$139.66	Sep 2010	UP 6.8%
$600,000 to $799,999	$168.75	UP 1.6%	UP 3.4%	$157.43	Aug 2010	UP 7.2%
$800,000 to $999,999	$188.48	DOWN 7.3%	UP 5.4%	$177.33	Sep 2010	UP 6.3%
$1,000,000 to $1,499,999	$241.31	UP 4.0%	UP 20.4%	$191.18	Sep 2010	UP 26.2%
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999	$234.11	DOWN 6.2%	UP 0.3%	$221.50	Nov 2010	UP 5.7%
$2,000,000 to $2,999,999	$326.34	UP 10.9%	UP 2.5%	$288.90	Jul 2010	UP 13.0%
$3,000,000 and Above	$385.24	DOWN 7.3%	UP 10.9%	$347.46	Oct 2010	UP 10.9%

We can see that there were no price ranges hitting new lows last month. Below $150,000 recent pricing tends look healthy and on a strong upward trend. Above this point the picture is rather mixed. All but 5 ranges are showing price appreciation for the last 12 months. So why does the overall market number not show price appreciation? The reason is that the sales volume has decreased in the upper ranges so the more expensive homes make less contribution to the overall mix, driving the overall average down.


Maricopa County Foreclosures
New notices were down 4% to 4,354 in October. Trustee sales were down 17% to 2,364 the lowest number since March 2008. Sales to third parties were 1,125 leaving only 1,239 going back to the lenders - the lowest total since October 2007.


REO inventory is down to 10,451 almost exactly half of what it was 12 months ago.

QR Codes - Be careful out there!

In today's smartphone world, many people are familiar with QR (Quick Response) codes.  But, for those who have no idea what I'm talking about, let me explain.  A QR code is the funny square box that you see on many products and in many ads today.  You can use a scanning app (such as Scanlife or others) on your smartphone to photograph the code and then be taken directly to a particular website or webpage.  For example, if you scan this QR code it will take you directly to my website.  

I mention this because, while I love this technology, it also scares me a little... actually, a lot.  I fear that our phones and all the GPS locator apps set us up for possible invasion into our personal lives.  We have invited the world into our phones, tablets, and computers and all the private information we have stored in them.  With that thought always being in the back of my mind, I wasn't surprised to see the article I've included below about the potential dangers of QR codes.  Do I feel safe because I'm an iPhone user not an Android user?  Not really.   

My message today is to be careful out there... there is malware out there that will do you harm.  Be vigilant in keeping your personal information secure.  When ordering things online or going to any site that asks for personal information, make sure the URL begins with https:// - that "s" after http means "secure."  

BTW (by the way), I can assure you that if you use my QR code, it will only take you to my website... no malware hidden in there!

Android Users: Beware of QR Codes, Expert Says

Courtesty of REALTOR® Mag

Daily Real Estate News | Friday, November 04, 2011 

 

A growing attack to smartphones, particularly Google’s Android, is coming from QR codes, the scannable bar codes that can be scanned with your smartphone to instantly connect you to more information. 

QR codes have been catching on in marketing, and real estate professionals have widely adopted them as well. 

But watch before you scan, says one malware security researcher. 
These codes have become a main target for viruses and hackers who are using them to steal personal data from your phone, malware researcher Sergey Golovanov with Kaspersky Lab in Moscow told Forbes.com.

“QR malware codes are mainly spreading through Android,” Golovanov says. “We haven’t found any QR malware for the iPhones yet. Everyone is looking for the Android users. We don’t know why. But one of the reasons is probably because iPhone has a closed operating system and Android has an open operating system so it is easier to create software for them.”

When you unknowingly scan a malware QR code with your smartphone, you’ll be redirected to a malicious web address that may end with “.APK” or “.JAR” file extensions. However, Golovanov says there’s no way to be certain when your device has been affected by one of these malware QR codes.
Source: “Is the iPhone Safer Than Google’s Android?” Forbes (Nov. 3, 2011)

Insurance Anyone?

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted: 03 Nov 2011 04:00 AM PDT

I am often asked about the different types of insurances that surround real estate. And while I am no expert on the topic, I do feel qualified to give an overview and some insight to assist you in asking intelligent questions to true insurance professionals. So, here it goes:

• Homeowner’s Insurance covers the replacement cost of the home and is required by lenders to ensure that their collateral (the home) will be replaced in case of damage. The amount of the policy need not include the value of the land. There are variables in cost by company and by the amount of the deductible.  Many people include riders to their homeowner’s policy for personal property (like jewelry) or get discounts because they tie it to their auto policies, etc. Recognize also that policies vary for owner occupied homes to second homes to vacation homes to investment properties.
• Flood Insurance is mandated by the Federal Government if your property is located in a Flood Zone. Flood Insurance Premiums are used to assist FEMA in rebuilding areas affected by flooding (like from a hurricane). Traditionally, “acts of God” have been excluded from many insurance policies. That was what forced the Flood Maps and mandatory coverages. (I imagine there is Tornado and Earthquake Insurance Policies as well, in areas where they are more likely.)
• Title Insurance is usually split into two policies – an Owner’s Policy and a Lender’s Policy. Both basically insure the same thing- that the owner of record is the rightful owner and that the liens of record (mortgages, for example) are the ones that everyone has agreed to. The title company searches the public records and certifies the title and the liens. Often, they clear prior liens and handle the transfer of ownership from seller to buyer with the County Clerk. Additionally, they provide information about real estate taxes, judgment and bankruptcy searches, and Certificates of Occupancy and Building Permits.
• Life and Disability Insurances are something to consider when you own a home. What if the worst case scenario happens? Depending on your age and health, the cost can be worth it. There are many types of life insurance (term vs. universal life insurance, for example) that can accomplish different goals from paying off your mortgage to planning for retirement. A strong life insurance professional is as important as a strong accountant. Cheapest is rarely best. Financially, many are covered in case of death but get crushed at times of disability. Investigate the cost….it usually makes good sense.

I expect today’s piece to get you thinking about what you must have and what you might consider for insurance. Just scratching the surface. Go get the recommendation of a professional. Check out cost, sure…but don’t lose sight of the concept of protecting your assets and your family.

It's Simple: Now is the Time to Buy a Home

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 04:00 AM PDT

“The millionaire says to a thousand people, ‘I read this book and it started me on the road to wealth.’  Guess how many go out and get the book? Very few. Isn’t that incredible? Why wouldn’t everyone get the book? A mystery of life.”  – Jim Rohn

Mr. Rohn explains that if we want to make the right financial decisions in our lives, we should depend on the same sources the wealthy read. This past month four different iconic financial resources said the same thing:

IT’S TIME TO BUY A HOME!

Here are all four resources.

Forbes Magazine: The Next Mortgage Crisis
Wall Street Journal: It’s Time to Buy That House
MarketWatch.com: Now Might Be the Best Time Ever to Buy a Home
JP Morgan Market Insights: Housing: A Time To Buy

Enjoy reading them!!

"This is a test. This is only a test."

Source:  COX Communications

Important Information About the Nationwide Emergency Alert System Test.

On November 9, 2011 a nationwide Emergency Alert System (EAS) test will be conducted at 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST. This is the first time that the EAS will be tested on a national level. Please note that no actual emergency is taking place, this is just a test.

So, what exactly is the Emergency Alert System?

• The EAS is a system used by the local and federal governments to alert citizens to critical information during an emergency.

Okay, but why does it even need to be tested?

• A national alert has never been issued and the process for issuing a national alert has never been tested. It is not certain that the system will work properly at a national level.
• This national test will ensure that the system works as intended, and the results make it possible to improve the national EAS's capabilities should it ever be needed.

Well, how long should it last and what will we see and hear?

• The test should last approximately thirty seconds.
• “This is a test” will be audible. However, the visual message may not signify that “this is a test” as the code transmitting the message will not have this text.
• A background screen and/or video scroll signifying that “This is a test” to supplement the message may or may not appear on the screen.
• Visual problems are working to be corrected, and Outreach to the help of hearing impaired organizations is ongoing to enlighten that community about the test.

Where can I find more details?

• Visit www.cox.com and select our “help and support” tab for more information.
• http://updates.cox.com/cgi-bin3/DM/t/hxxR0BVeyFJ0ZZK0MBd0En
• http://updates.cox.com/cgi-bin3/DM/t/hxxR0BVeyFJ0ZZK0MBe0Eo

Remember, this is only a test. No action is needed on your part so please do not be alarmed.