Yet Another Housing Bear Turns Bull

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog
Posted: 01 May 2012 
Every day there seems to be more positive news about the real estate recovery. We attempt to give you two things in this blog:

1.   The actual data that indicates where the housing market is headed
2.   Quotes from analysts who have scrutinized this data

Today, we want to give you a quote by Ivy Zelman which appeared last week in a Wall Street Journal article Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back. 

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”

Why is the quote from Zelman important? She is an industry expert consistently recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine and The Wall Street Journal as an industry-leading analyst. She has been nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years. Now, Zelman is calling a bottom and projecting prices to moderately increase in the next twelve months.

Again, another expert on housing is calling a bottom; another bear turns bull.

Buying a Home Won't Get Much Cheaper

Source:  CNNMoney
Article by Les Christie / May 3, 2012

Several housing experts are predicting that this year will be the last chance for homebuyers to cash in on the weak housing market.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Buying a home may never get any cheaper than this. Several housing experts are predicting that this year will be the last chance for bargain hunters to cash in on the best deals of the weak housing market. 

With home prices down 34% nationally since 2006 and mortgage rates at historic lows, homes have never been more affordable -- but it won't stay this way for much longer. 

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services (PNC, Fortune 500), said he expects home prices to flatten out by the third quarter and start climbing by next year. 

A number of factors will help bolster the housing market, he said, including a decline in the number of foreclosures and continued job growth. In addition, homebuyers will have better access to mortgages as they get their finances in order and improve their credit scores. 

Some economists, like Trulia's Jed Kolko, expect home prices to pick up even more quickly. Trulia's data shows that the national average for asking prices already increased 1.4% in the first quarter of 2012, compared with the last three months of 2011.

Mortgage payments at lowest level in decades

"This is a strong indicator that we will start seeing home price indexes, like the S&P/Case-Shiller, start to report home price increases this summer," he said. 

Prospective homebuyers who've been sitting on the fence shouldn't worry if they aren't quite ready to make the leap. Analysts are predicting that the initial price gains will be modest, at least, in most markets.

Hoffman, for example, is forecasting a 2% increase in 2013 compared with 2012. Meanwhile David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv, predicts that prices will turn in the last quarter of 2012 and will rise 4.2% for the 12 months through September 2013. 

Foreclosures start to fade. One major factor that will drive the trend is the cooling of the foreclosure crisis. Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow, said that the percentage of mortgage loans 90 days or more late, a good predictor of future foreclosures, is "falling fast." 

That percentage dropped 15% year-over-year to 3.1% through the end of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. And the decline is accelerating: More than 70% of the decline came in the last three months of the year.

Before things slow down, however, buyers should brace themselves for a temporary spike in the number of foreclosures as banks start expediting the processing of hundreds of thousands foreclosures that were stuck in the system following the robo-signing scandal. That backlog should move more quickly now that new guidelines for processing foreclosures have been outlined in the $26 billion foreclosure settlement. 

Many of the bank-owned properties currently coming out of the foreclosure pipeline are being snapped up by investors who are fixing them up and renting them out -- often to those who were displaced by the foreclosure of their own home. That has helped to lift prices on foreclosed properties, according to Alex Villacorte, the director of analytics for Clear Capital, which specializes in housing market valuations. 

Home buying much cheaper than renting

"That could have a significant impact on the market overall in terms of providing a rising floor to home values," he said.

In some markets hit hard by foreclosures, the turnaround in prices is already underway. Phoenix recorded an 8.4% jump in home prices during the three months ended April 30, compared with the three months ended January 31, according to Clear Capital. 


"It's crazy," said Tanya Marchiol, founder of Team Investments, a Phoenix real estate investing firm. "Stuff I was selling six months ago for $60,000 to $80,000 is now $90,000 to $110,000."
Miami saw a 4.6% increase quarter-over-quarter through April, and Tampa, Fla., was up 4.4%, according to Clear Capital.

Goodbye 3.8% mortgage. In addition to home prices, mortgages could also move higher. 

Mortgage rates have been at or near historic lows for much of the past six months. The average interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has not topped 4.5% since July 2011 and this week, it hit 3.84%, a new low.

But rates aren't expected to remain at these record-low levels much longer. As the economy continues to recover, rates will move higher, said Doug Lebda, CEO of LendingTree, the online lending site. Although, he said, they will "stay very reasonable." 

The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting that the 30-year fixed will hit 4.5% by the end of the year.

Greater demand for loans will help fuel the increase, according to Lebda. 

6 Ways to get a great mortgage deal

Even though mortgage rates have been cheap, borrowing for home purchases has been sluggish. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that homebuyers will take out mortgage loans totaling about $415 billion this year, an increase of less than 3% compared with 2011. Next year, however, it forecasts that amount will almost double to $706 billion.


As housing markets stabilize and prices stop falling, homebuyers will be even more confident about buying, said Humphries. 

"People can now see the light at the end of the tunnel," he said. "And that can be enough to get them off the fence." 

Phoenix at Top of Strongest Housing Markets List

Courtesy of Sierra Pacific Mortgage
4/18/12

Nice to see Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale up there at #1 on the strongest housing markets list!

Check out this link: The US Housing Market: Current Conditions and Forecasts

Pook's Message - 4/16/12

Ask any Arizona 4th grader what Arizona's 5 Cs stand for and they'll be quick to tell you that they stand for Arizona's five major resources: Cattle, Citrus, Climate, Copper, and Cotton.  In the early years of Arizona's statehood, farming, ranching, and mining brought people here for jobs and the state's mild climate was perfect for enticing folks to visit and stay.  At various levels, all those resources are still factors in Arizona's economy today, with Arizona's climate still being the huge draw and tourism and travel being a leading industry in Arizona.   That being said, I'd probably add a 6th C - Commerce, which brings all of those resources together, along with the many other economic, social, cultural, and technological systems that make Arizona great. 

Here in the Paradise Valley area, people talk about some different Cs... Many folks new to the area, assume that the Town of Paradise Valley is in the Paradise Valley School District, however, it's actually within the Scottsdale Unified School District and when folks here talk about the 3 Cs, they're referring to Cherokee Elementary, Cocopah Middle, and Chapparal High School.

On a financial level, there are some more Cs to think about... when applying for credit, lenders will consider a borrower's Character, Capacity, Capital, Conditions, and Collateral.  One of Today's Topics, The Four Cs of Mortgage Underwriting, talks about 4 of those Cs: Capacity, Credit, Cash, Collateral.  While they're not included in the article, Character (a borrower's integrity) and Conditions (of the borrower and the economy) are also important factors.  In today's market, with interest rates being at all-time lows, many people are finding it hard to get loans. Before you start looking for a home, talk to a lender to find out what you'll need to qualify for a loan and how much you can qualify for.  Start the process here by reviewing The Four Cs of Mortgage Underwriting and 6 Don's After You Apply for a Mortgage.  If you need the name of a lender, give me a call or check out my website for the names of several great mortgage advisors and loan officers.

15-Year Mortgage Rates Dive to Lowest on Record

Courtesy of REALTOR®Mag/National Association of REALTORS®
Daily Real Estate News | Friday, April 13, 2012

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, often the top choice of home refinancers, reached a new all-time record low of 3.11 percent this week, Freddie Mac reports in this week’s mortgage market survey. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage also sank lower this week, hovering near it’s all-time low. 
 
"Fixed mortgage rates eased for the third consecutive week following long-term Treasury bond yields lower after a weaker than expected employment report for March,” Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Frank Nothaft says.

Here’s how rates fared for the week ending April 12: 

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.88 percent, with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week’s 3.98 percent average. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.91 percent. 
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged a new record low of 3.11 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 3.21 percent average. The 15-year mortgage rate’s previous record low was 3.13 percent, which was set on March 8 of this year. Last year at this time, 15-year rates averaged 4.13 percent. 
• 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.85 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, also falling from last week, in which it averaged 2.86 percent. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.78 percent. 
• 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.80 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, rising from last week’s 2.78 percent average. A year ago, 1-year ARMs averaged 3.25 percent. 

Source: Freddie Mac

The 4 Cs of Mortgage Underwriting

Courtesy of Keep Current Matters/the KCM Blog
Posted: 05 Apr 2012 04:00 AM PDT


With Spring upon us, and new buyers out looking for houses, I thought today might be a good time to review the basics of what lenders look for as they decide to approve (or deny) mortgage applications. For at least 25 years, I have heard them called “The 4 C’s of Underwriting”- Capacity, Credit, Cash, and Collateral.  Guidelines and risk tolerances change, but the core criteria do not.

 

CAPACITY

CAPACITY is the analysis of comparing a borrower’s income to their proposed debt. It considers the borrower’s ability to repay the mortgage. Lenders look at two calculations (we call ratios). The first is your Housing Ratio. It simply is the percentage of your proposed total mortgage payment (principal & interest, real estate taxes, homeowner’s insurance and, if applicable, flood insurance and mortgage insurance – like PMI or the FHA MIP) divided by your monthly, pre-tax income. A solid Housing Ratio (often called the front end ratio) would be 28% or less; although, at times loans are approved at a significantly higher number. That’s because your front end ratio is looked at in conjunction with your back end ratio.
The back end ratio (referred to as your Debt Ratio) starts with that mortgage payment calculation from the Housing Ratio and adds to it your recurring debts that would show up on your credit report (auto loans, student loans, minimum credit card payments, etc.) without taking into consideration some other debts (phone bills, utility bills, cable TV). A good back ratio would be 40% or less. However, loans sometimes are granted with higher debt ratios. Understand that every application is different. Income can be impacted by overtime, night differential, bonuses, job history, unreimbursed expenses, commission, as well as other factors. Similarly, how your debts are considered can vary. Consult an experienced loan officer to determine how the underwriter will calculate your numbers.

 

CREDIT

CREDIT is the statistical prediction of a borrower’s future payment likelihood. By reviewing the past factors (payment history, total debt compared to total available debt, the types of monies: revolving credit vs. installment debt outstanding) a credit score is assigned each borrower which reflects the anticipated repayment. The higher your score, the lower the risk to the lender which usually results in better loan terms for the borrower. Your loan officer will look to run your credit early on to see what challenges may (or may not) present themselves.

 

CASH

CASH is a review of your asset picture after you close. There are really two components – cash in the deal and cash in reserves. Simply put, the bigger your down payment (the more of your own money at risk) the stronger the loan application. At the same time, the more money you have in reserve after closing the less likely you are to default. Two borrowers with the same profile as far as income ratios and credit scores have different risk levels if one has $50,000 in the bank after closing and the other has $50. There is logic here. The source of your assets will be examined. Is it savings? Was it a gift? Was it a one-time settlement/lottery victory/bonus? Discuss how much money you have and its origins with your loan officer.

 

COLLATERAL

COLLATERAL refers to the appraisal of your home. It considers many factors – sales of comparable homes, location of the home, size of the home, condition of the home, cost to rebuild the home, and even rental income options. Understand the lender does not want to foreclose (they aren’t in the real estate business), but they do need to have something to secure the loan against, in case of default. In today’s market, appraisers tend to be conservative in their evaluations. Appraisals are really the only one of the 4 C’s that can’t be determined ahead of time in most cases.

Now, each of the 4 C’s are important, but it’s really the combination of them that is key. Strong income ratios and a large down payment with strong reserves can offset some credit issues. Similarly, long and strong credit histories help higher ratios….and good credit and income can overcome lesser down payments. Talk openly and freely with your loan officer. They are on your side, advocating for you and looking to structure your file as favorably as possible.

6 Don'ts After You Apply for a Mortgage

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/the KCM Blog
Posted: 12 Apr 2012 04:00 AM PDT

I learned a long time ago that “common sense is NOT common practice“. This is especially the case during the emotional time that surrounds buying a home, when people tend to do some non-commonsensical things. Here are a few that I’ve seen over the years that have delayed (and even killed) deals:

1. Don’t deposit cash into your bank accounts. Lenders need to source your money and cash is not really traceable. Small, explainable deposits are fine, but getting $10,000 from your parents as a gift in cash is not. Discuss the proper way to track your assets with your loan officer.
2. Don’t make any large purchases like a new car or a bunch of new furniture. New debt comes with it, including new monthly obligations. New obligations create new qualifications. People with new debt have higher ratios…higher ratios make for riskier loans…and sometimes qualified borrowers are no longer qualifying.
3. Don’t co-sign other loans for anyone. When you co-sign, you are obligated. With that obligation comes higher ratios, as well. Even if you swear you won’t be making the payments, the lender will be counting the payment against you.
4. Don’t change bank accounts. Remember, lenders need to source and track assets. That task is significantly easier when there is a consistency of accounts. Frankly, before you even transfer money between accounts, talk to your loan officer.
5. Don’t apply for new credit. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a new credit card or a new car, when you have your credit report run by organizations in multiple financial channels (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.), your FICO score will be affected. Lower credit scores can determine your interest rate and maybe even your eligibility for approval.
6. Don’t close any credit accounts. Many clients have erroneously believed that having less available credit makes them less risky and more approvable. Wrong. A major component of your score is your length and depth credit history (as opposed to just your payment history) and your total usage of credit as a percentage of available credit. Closing accounts has a negative impact on both those determinants of your score.

The best advice is to fully disclose and discuss your plans with your loan officer before you do anything financial in nature. Any blip in income, assets, or credit should be reviewed and executed in a way to keep your application in the most positive light.