Source: W. P. Carey School of Business/Arizona State University
https://asunews.asu.edu/20140903-business-orr-housing-report-real-estate
Posted: September 03, 2014
Mike
Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the
W. P. Carey School of Business, created new, enhanced real estate
content to complement his monthly housing reports.
The Phoenix-area housing market is not creating another housing
bubble to pop anytime soon. The latest monthly report from the W. P.
Carey School of Business at Arizona State University shows a lack of
enthusiasm from both buyers and sellers. Here are the latest details on
Maricopa and Pinal counties, as of July:
• The median single-family-home sales price went up 8 percent from
last July, but forward price movement is greatly slowing down.
• Activity in the market was also much slower this July than last
July, with the number of single-family-home sales down 19 percent.
• The W. P. Carey School is launching an enhanced-content website
where those interested in more in-depth housing-market statistics can
get customized views of what’s happening.
Phoenix-area home prices dramatically recovered from the housing
crash, quickly rising from September 2011 to last summer. This year,
prices dropped a little, leveled off and then finally, the median
single-family-home price rose this summer. The median jumped 8 percent –
from $194,000 last July to $210,000 this July. Realtors will note the
average price per square foot also went up about 8 percent. The median
townhouse/condo price went up about 6 percent to $130,000. However,
don’t expect much more upward momentum.
“Most of the median-price increase over the last 12 months is because
a greater percentage of the homes being sold are in the luxury market,
not because home values overall are increasing,” says the report’s
author, Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and
Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “We anticipate pricing
will move sideways or slightly down over the next few months until
supply and demand get back into balance.”
At the moment, both demand and supply are low in the Phoenix area.
The amount of single-family-home sales dropped 19 percent from last July
to this July. (The only bright spot is new-home sales, which increased
their market share from 9 to 12 percent.) Investors have focused on
other areas of the country with better bargains, so the percentage of
residential properties they bought in July was just 13.6 percent, down
from the peak of 39.7 percent in July 2012. Orr says other home buyers
aren’t stepping in and supply isn’t rebounding.
“Usually, when demand is weak for an extended period, supply starts
to grow, as it did in the second half of 2005 and throughout 2006 and
2007, heralding the collapse of the housing bubble,” Orr explains.
“However, this summer, supply is slowly weakening. It appears that the
lack of enthusiasm among buyers has spread to sellers, instead of
causing them to panic. Many sellers clearly have the patience to wait
for better times and are unwilling to drop prices to dispose of their
homes.”
Orr adds the choices for anyone who wants to buy a Phoenix-area house
for less than $175,000 are pretty slim. For example, bargain
foreclosures are few and far between. Completed foreclosures on
single-family homes and condos are down 45 percent this July from last
July.
The limited options at the low end of the market are also contributing to the booming demand for single-family rental
homes. Orr says fast turnover and low vacancy rates have already pushed
the rent on single-family homes in the most popular areas up 7.5
percent over the last 12 months. Affordable apartment and condo rentals
have also become hard to find.